烏克蘭危機與中國的戰略處境和選擇

The Ukraine Crisis and China's Strategic Situation and Options

2014年3月爆發的烏克蘭危機，除了揭露其內部親俄派與親歐派的鬥爭，還捲入美歐與俄羅斯之間的嚴重對抗。這對於中國是機會，也有風險。中國在烏克蘭議題上選擇自制，事出必有因。從戰略位置與利益看，保持隔岸觀火、坐收漁利，固然是最佳的戰略選擇，但以中烏關係的緊密度看，實際上由不得中國，它並無法全身而退。在既有國際權力結構鬆動而新的結構在成型的過程中，北京站在有利的戰略位置，可主動塑造更多而靈活的籌碼，為其所用，就眼前而言，中國的得仍應多於失。然眼前中國戰略環境具有兩面性：一方面，崛起的中國其影響力無遠弗屆，但另一方面，由於中國外交攤子鋪得太大，已陷入全球性的政治參與，讓中國無法置身事外，其實也是負擔。

The outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in March 2014 not only reveals the internal struggles between pro-Russian and pro-European factions inside Ukraine but also the involvement of a serious confrontation between the US-Europe allies and Russia from without. This is an opportunity but also a risk for China. In a self-constrained manner, China has been very cautious on the issue. From a strategic view, China had better to keep standing on the sidelines. But, for China, it is not an easy job to get rid of the involvement because China-Ukraine relations are close. Amid structural changes of international politics, Beijing stands in a favorable strategic position and enjoys more flexible chips for its use. For the time being, China’s gains outnumber losses on Ukraine issue. However, China's strategic environment is double-sided: on the one hand, the rise of China makes its influence far and wide, but on the other hand, due to its over exposure, China has been greatly devoted into the global participation, so that China cannot stay out of it. It is actually a burden.