投資人情緒與分析師行為之關聯性研究

Investor Sentiment and Analyst Behavior

本研究旨在探討投資人情緒是否會影響到分析師要不要加入報導公司的行列，以及分析師發佈預測和推薦時是否會注意到投資人情緒，亦即當投資人情緒較樂觀時，分析師是否會發佈較長期的預測以及較有利的股票推薦。本文以中央大學台灣經濟研究發展中心所編製之消費者信心指數作為投資人情緒的替代變數。研究結果與本文預期相符，當投資人情緒較高昂時，有較多的分析師加入預測行列，樣本公司的追隨分析師較多，此外分析師會發佈較長期的盈餘預測，以及會發布較有利的推薦評等；再者，當投資人情緒上升時，分析師的推薦評等通常也會向上修正，顯示分析師雖為專精且較為理性之投資人，但其行為仍受到投資人情緒所影響。最後，我們發現不論是本土或是國外分析師，都同樣的受到國內投資人情緒影響。

This first objective of this study is to investigate the association between investor sentiment and analysts' coverage decisions. Secondly, we further examine whether analysts are more likely to issue longer-horizon earnings forecasts and more favorable stock recommendations during high-sentiment periods. Using the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) calculated by the National Central University to measure investors’ sentiment, we find that analysts are more likely to follow the firms in our sample. Next, we further find that analysts tend to issue longer-horizon earnings forecasts and favorable stock recommendations when investor sentiment is more optimistic. Moreover, analysts have a higher tendency to revise their stock recommendations upwards during the period in which investor sentiment increase. Finally, we find that regardless of local or foreigner analysts, our results are robust. Taken together, these findings suggest that analysts are affected by investor sentiment even though they are more sophisticated investors in capital markets.