中國大陸貿易發展策略研析

Research and Analysis of Trade Development Strategy in China

從發展的角度看，經歷了30多年的高速成長後，隨著人口及入世紅利逐漸消退、原有的改革紅利逐漸釋放完畢，基礎設施投資潛力減弱，淨出口對經濟成長貢獻降低，中國大陸經濟自身已經進入從外延式的規模擴張向內涵式的結構調整，也就是經濟結構上從投資、出口主導轉向以消費主導為主，政策上則由刺激向內生增長轉變，思路上係在擴大內需基調上，以改變外貿發展方式為主線，積極擴大進口，培育新的外貿競爭優勢。而中國大陸積極進行產業結構調整及經濟轉型之際，兩岸的貿易型態將受其影響與轉變。對此，台灣除應積極提擴大、提升中堅企業價值鏈，並藉由ECFA向中國大陸內需市場拓銷轉型外，更需降低對歐美出口市場依賴，開拓新興市場，以及重新思考定位兩岸貿易關係。

From a development perspective, after 30 years of rapid growth, along with the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend and the benefits created by becoming a member of the WTO and by reforming, the weakening of the potential of infrastructure investment, and the decreasing contribution of net export to GDP growth, China has changed its economic growth model from a scale-oriented to a quality-oriented approach. That is, its economic structure has shifted from an investment and export driven economy to a consumption driven one; and its policy philosophy has changed from relying on fiscal stimulus to emphasizing endogenous growth; and its policy priority has shifted to change its trade development method by promoting exports and developing new foreign trade competitive advantages while also expanding domestic demand. While the PRC government actively carries out plans for restructuring its industries and economy, the cross-strait trade pattern will definitely be affected. In this regard, Taiwan should actively expand and promote its value chain, especially for its medium-size enterprises, utilize the opportunities provided by the ECFA to increase its market share in China, and also reduce the dependence on the U.S. and the European markets, by expanding market share in emerging markets, as well as rethinking the cross-strait trade relationship.