中國式金融危機的可能成因與解決途徑

On Possible Causes of a Chinese Financial Crisis and Solutions Crisis

2013年以來，隨著大陸經濟成長減緩，地方政府融資平台債務成長、影子銀行規模快速擴張及房地產價格泡沫等三項風險，都引發了外界的高度關注，並開始討論起大陸是否即將爆發金融危機，「中國式金融危機」一詞也開始被廣泛引用，但對其內涵卻沒有一致的見解。本文試圖以「是否具有中國特色」這個角度，來重新檢視地方政府融資平台、影子銀行及房地產市場這三個被公認為風險最高的領域，結果發現：地方政府融資平台債務成長、影子銀行規模快速擴張及房地產價格泡沫只是表現出來的病症，大陸金融體系的真正病因在於在中央政府對資源與調配資源權力的壟斷，加上各級政府對經濟成長的過度追求與對信貸的過度依賴。2008年全球金融海嘯爆發後推出的4兆元刺激景氣方案，造成流動性過剩，則是誘發各項病症的病機。因此，為避免當前風險持續積累至爆發金融危機，大陸必須徹底轉變發展方式、調整政府職能及加速推動市場化體制改革。

From the beginning of 2013, with the decline of China’s growth, people around the world has started to pay a lot of attention to the financial risks in China, focusing on the increase of local government financing platform debt, the rapid expansion of the shadow banking system, and the growing real estate bubble. At same time, the term “Chinese Financial Crisis” began being used widely without clear definition, causing confusion. This study aims to reexamine the three main financial risks mentioned above in China from a fresh perspective that focuses on whether or not they contain some unique Chinese elements. The main conclusion of this study is that the aforementioned risks are just symptoms; the real weaknesses of China’s financial system are the monopoly power of the Chinese central government over resources, and the unhealthy appetite for rapid economic growth and overdependence on loans of Chinese local governments. Also, the “four trillion stimulus package” carried out by the Chinese central government after the global financial crisis in 2008 has caused serious excess liquidity problem, which in turn has triggered lots of “symptoms” of a financial crisis. The solutions for China to avoid a Chinese Financial Crisis are to change its development model, modify the central and local government functions, and accelerate market-oriented reforms.