中國大陸推動城鎮化對房地產市場的影響與商機

The impact on the real estate market of and business opportunities arising from Mainland China's promotion of urbanization

本文針對大陸推動城鎮化對房地產市場之影響與商機進行研析，主要發現如下：未來3年（2014~2016年）大陸房地產市場仍供不應求、四線城市是大陸房地產市場未來亮點所在。－－前10大亮點城市：湖南㈱洲位居第1，廣東江門居次，3-10名分別為河北石家莊、湖南湘潭、江蘇徐州、河南洛陽、黑龍江哈爾濱、廣西柳州、山東棗莊及泰安等，上述區域將是大陸房地產業未來亮點地區。－－對台灣的影響：本研究結果發現三、四線城市城鎮化速度最快，顯示上述三、四線城市之消費市場、基礎建設投資及房地產市場之相關商機也最大。基此，台灣食品、家電、紡織等與大陸內需市場相關之民生產業可進軍大陸三、四線城市擴大規模，掌握此一商機。－－政策建議：包括建立系統性且持續性的次級城市調查機制，並逐步建置大陸三、四線城市的資料庫等資訊平台供業者參考；政府未來應選擇具潛力三、四線城市加強拓銷及參展，以掌握大陸推動城鎮化的商機。

In this paper, the impact of urbanization on the real estate market in Mainland China research and related business opportunities are examined; the main findings are as follows; in the next three years (2014 to 2016) the mainland real estate market will still see supply below demand, and fourth tier cities will be the highlight of the real estate market. ─ Top 10 Highlight Cities: Zhuzhou, Hunan ranked No.1, Jiangmen, Guangdong second; 3rd- 10th respectively, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Hunan, Xiangtan, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, Luoyang, Henan, Harbin, Heilongjiang, Liuzhou, Guangxi, Tai'an, and Zaozhuan, Shandong and so on, these area will be the highlight areas of mainland real estate industry in the future. ─ the impact on Taiwan: The results of this study found that three or four -tier city urbanization is fastest, showing the aforementioned third and fourth tier city consumer market, infrastructure investment and real estate market related business opportunities are also the largest. Based on this, Taiwanese food, household appliances, textiles and other industries related to people's livelihood and the mainland can establish a presence expand their presence in third and fourth tier cities in the mainland to grasp this opportunity. ─ policy recommendations include: the establishment of a systematic and sustained investigation mechanism for secondary cities, and gradually build a mainland third or fourth -tier city database and other information platforms for industry reference; in the future government should choose third or fourth tier cities with potential for increased sales efforts and exhibition participation to grasp the opportunities presented by the promotion of urbanization in China.