歐洲主權債信危機之分析

Analysis of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

歐債危機已成為全球經濟不確定的因素之一，其直接起因為：全球金融風暴使政府稅收減少，以及各國為提振經濟與紓困金融機構而大幅增加支出，導致赤字及債務上升等。結構性起因則包括：歐元區財政規範問題及競爭力差異，以及歐洲整體面臨就業偏低及人口老化等。展望未來，由於歐元區核心及邊緣國家皆受益於歐元，短期內會員國放棄使用歐元的可能性不高；債信方面，由於以歷史角度而言，現今多數歐洲國家平均實質利息負擔，並未特別重，加上規模龐大的金融穩定措施，短期違約可能低；最後，歐債危機造成歐盟對會員國經濟治理權力提升、金融業管制趨向嚴格，以及高福利體制瓦解，其影響層面廣泛而深遠。

The European debt crisis has become a factor of uncertainty in the global economy. Its direct cause is the reduction of tax revenues stemming from the 2008 financial tsunami and the increase in government expenditure for economic revitalization and bailing out troubled financial institutions, resulting in increased fiscal deficits and public debt. The structural causes include problems of financial regulation and disparities of competitiveness in the eurozone, as well as low employment and population aging faced by Europe as a whole. Looking ahead, the beneficial value of the euro to both core and peripheral eurozone countries means that there is little likelihood of the euro being abandoned by EU members within the near term. In respect of eurozone countries’ debt standing, since the average real interest burden of most European countries is at present not particularly heavy from a historical perspective, and given the huge scale of the EU’s financial stabilization measures, there is low likelihood of debt default within the near future. Lastly, the European sovereign debt crisis has wide-faceted and far-reaching implications in respect of raising the EU’s powers of economic governance over its member states, introducing stricter control of the financial industry, and scaling back social welfare systems.