全球糧荒之成因、影響及因應對策

The Causes and Effects of the Global Food Crisis, and Policy Responses

子曰：「足食，足兵，民信之矣。」免於飢餓早被國際視為基本人權（按國際人權公約第11條第2項），稱作：「足食權」。顯見糧食生產攸關國家興衰與國民生計至深且鉅。國際糧價自2007年起全面飆漲，聯合國專家、各國領袖及學者相繼提出全球糧荒警訊，我國自難置身事外。國內除稻米以外，大部分主糧皆須仰賴進口，尤其榖物自給率呈現逐年下降趨勢，相關主管機關之具體措施為何，能否有效因應此一全球危機而確保民眾生計無虞至為重要，爰為撰寫本報告之初始構想。本報告蒐集國內外文獻，探討全球穀物供需情形與糧荒之成因，分析糧荒對全球與我國之影響，以及各主要國家採取之因應措施，最後作成結論與建議。針對糧荒問題，世界各主要國家雖相繼提出因應措施，惟據聯合國糧農組織（FAO）估計，全球飢餓人口目前已超過10億人且集中在開發中國家，加上近來氣候變遷重創糧食生產，世界糧食安全形勢越來越不容樂觀。各國政府必須充分儲備，促進糧食生產效率的提高，提供更多的糧食供給，以確保糧食安全，我國亦應積極檢討現行各種農業政策是否符合實需，諸如供需指標出現之警訊、糧食生產面臨之危機與困境，以及休耕、公糧管理、糧食安全等政策，應予正視並擬妥對策，以備無患。

Confucius said: 'The requisites of government are that there be sufficiency of food, sufficiency of military strength, and the confidence of the people in their ruler.' Freedom from hunger has long been viewed by the international community as a basic human right, the so-called “right to adequate food” enshrined in Article 11 of the International Convention on Human Rights. Obviously, food production is crucial to national prosperity and national life. When international food prices began to soar in 2007, United Nations experts along with leaders and scholars around the world raised a succession of warnings that a global food crisis was developing. Taiwan could not but be affected by such a threat. Apart from selfsufficiency in rice, Taiwan depends on imports for all other staple foods. Particularly, its self-sufficiency in cereals has been falling year by year. The question of what measures the responsible authorities should take to respond to this global threat assumed great importance to the lives and well-being of the Taiwanese people, and prompted the undertaking of this study. In this study, we examine the global grain supply and demand situation and the causes of food shortages, drawing on research findings from home and abroad. We analyze the effects of food shortages globally and domestically, and look at the measures taken by leading countries in response. In the last part of the study, we draw conclusions and present recommendations for Taiwan’s policy makers. Although the world’s major countries successively took measures to address the food crisis, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that the number of the world’s hungry has exceeded one billion people, who are mainly concentrated in developing countries. Factoring in the recent effects of climate change on food production, there is less and less cause for optimism about the state of global food security. Governments worldwide should build up adequate stocks of food, and promote higher efficiency in food production, to increase the food supply and ensure food security. Taiwan’s government should review current agricultural policies, to examine whether they are consistent with real needs. For example, close attention should be paid to warnings shown by supply and demand indicators, to crises and difficulties faced in food production, and to policies in respect of fallow fielding, public grain management, and food security. The real needs of the situation must be squarely faced, and appropriate responsive policies adopted to alleviate causes of concern.