兩岸資金流動情況之探討

A Study of Capital Flows across the Taiwan Strait

由於過去兩岸金融往來採間接模式，加以政府對於赴大陸投資金額仍有若干限制，因此民間常以多重迂迴方式將資金匯至大陸，致政府無法確實掌握資金流向。本文從實務面出發，廣泛臚列兩岸資金可能的流動途徑，並依有限的資料估算兩岸開放交流迄2004年上半年止的流動情況。就國際收支的觀點言，由於我對大陸的巨額貿易順差，使得我國在兩岸的資金流動中呈現資金淨流入的現象。文中並探討資金流動對我國之影響並提出相關政策建議。

Owing to the indirect mode adopted for cross-strait financial transactions in the past, as well as the restrictions that the government still imposes on investment in China, private businesses have frequently resorted to a variety of circuitous methods for remitting capital to China. Such practices have made it extremely difficult for the government to accurately keep track of capital outflows to China. In this paper, the author attempts to identify as many as possible of the channels of cross-strait capital flows, and to estimate the state of such flows as of the first half of 2004 on the basis of the limited data available. Using the international-balance-of-payments approach, the author estimates a net capital inflow to Taiwan, mainly due to the huge surplus accruing in its favor from trade with China. The author also discusses the impacts of cross-strait capital flows on the Taiwan economy and makes related policy recommendations