近期國內物價變動之探討

A Study on Taiwan’s Recent Price Movements

本文主要探討近期國內物價上漲之影響因素，並展望未來物價走勢。93年初以來消費者物價改變過去3年下跌轉呈上揚走勢，主要影響因素為國際油價、原物料行情持續上升，以及風雨災害影響蔬果供應等供給面因素，加上92年比較基期偏低所致。儘管能源需求占國內生產毛額的比重下滑，國際油價飆高對我國物價之壓力已不若以往，惟短期內國際油價要大幅回跌的可能性不高，仍須審慎謀求因應對策。

This paper examines the forces behind recent consumer price rises in Taiwan, and assesses the future outlook for price movements. In 2004, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has started to go up again after a three-year period of decline. The main factors behind this upturn have been the rising international prices of oil and other raw materials, and a decline in food supplies caused by typhoons and other natural disasters. Since the ratio of energy demand to GDP has been falling in Taiwan, a surge in the international oil price exerts less inflationary pressure than in the past. Nevertheless, in face of the improbability that international oil prices will drop significantly in the near future, it remains an important task for the government to carefully formulate policies in response.