新台幣有效匯率指數之檢討與修正

Effective Exchange Rate Indexes of the New Taiwan Dollar: Review and Revision

有效匯率指數綜合計算一國貨幣對一籃子外幣的匯率變動，是重要的決策指標。本會為財經政策規劃與決策參考，自1974年起由經研處負責編製該指標，並二次檢討修正編算方法及基期，最近一次是在1994年修正完成使用。鑒於當前距離制訂原編製方法時國內外經濟情勢已顯著不同，現行國內外指標也多調整基期，本報告爰針對如何檢討修正進行探討。經試算後發現：指數基期與權數基期不同，各有效匯率指數差別有限，原因與美國、中國大陸及香港的貿易權數互見消長而合計變化不大，均使用美元或與美元維持聯繫有關。

Effective exchange rates (EER) are an important reference for policy making. The nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) of a currency is its external value vis-à-vis a basket of foreign currencies. The real effective exchange rate (REER) is the value expressed in constant prices: that is, the NEER denominated with appropriate price index. Since 1974, the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) has constructed an EER index for the New Taiwan dollar, as an analytical reference. In view of recent dramatic changes in the international environment, such as the birth of the euro and the structural shift in Taiwan's trade, as well as changes in the base period for most statistical data, this paper reviews the performance of the New Taiwan dollar's EER and seeks to reconstruct the index. The findings suggest that, despite changes in the base year and trade structure, there has been little change in either the NEER or the REER. This is probably mainly because there has been relatively little change in the dollar area. In spite of the decreasing importance of the United States in Taiwan’s trade, the group consisting of the U.S. and another two economies with currencies pegged to the dollar, namely, mainland China and Hong Kong, still carries a weight of 40% in the basket of foreign currencies, virtually unchanged during the past decade.