兩岸石化工業發展趨勢及對我國經濟影響分析——兼論台灣石化工業未來走向

Analysis of the Development of the Cross-Strait Petrochemical Industry and Its Impact on Taiwan’s Economy, Including a Discussion of the Future of Taiwan’s Petrochemical Industry

西元2001年我國乙烯年產量為258萬公噸，每人乙烯耗用量約124.5公斤，中國大陸乙烯年產量為481萬公噸，每人乙烯耗用量約為3.82公斤。考量4-5年後，先前赴大陸投資設廠的跨國石化集團建廠完成量產後，對我國石化產品出口的影響，在政府已選擇經濟發展、環保意識、以及技術提升均能兼顧的特化產業，作為未來石化業的重點推廣發展產業，有關須耗天然資源的石化上游產業新的投資案，建議政策上能按市場自由競爭機制，由業者選擇投資地區。

Taiwan produced 2.58 million tons of ethylene in 2001. This worked out at an average consumption per person of 124.5kg, compared to 17.99kg world-wide and only 3.82kg in mainland China. With its very low consumption rate, the mainland Chinese market still offers enormous development potential. With foreign-invested petrochemical plants in mainland China expected to begin mass production in 4-5 years, not only for the domestic but also the world market, this will have a major impact on Taiwan’s petrochemical exports. Taiwan’s government has designated fine chemical industries, which are able to match all of its main policy objectives for economic development, environmental awareness, and technological upgrading, as the main focus for future petrochemical industry development. Regarding investment in heavily resource-consuming upstream petrochemical industries, it is recommended that policy should respect the mechanisms of free-market competition and allow petrochemical firms to choose for themselves where they invest.