習近平對臺政策的可能架構與內涵

The Likely Framework and Contents of Xi Jin Ping's Taiwan Policy

本論文試圖透過中國國家主席習近平過去在上任前，零星的發言與相關報導，加以捕捉與揣測，從而勾畫出其對台政策的架構。本文認定中國的任何領導人在處理對台政策時，都受制於傳統政策的既定軌道，然而在決策過程中，領導人個人的人格特質所扮演的角色卻也相當關鍵。習熟悉對台事務，被視為知台派。其豐富的涉台經驗很可能讓他避免多犯錯，但相對地，因為較了解，兩岸雙方的模糊空間也會變小。本論文將評價馬英九對習近平所採取的親善政策以及展望未來兩岸關係的走向與面臨的挑戰。

This article attempts to outline the framework of Chinese President Xi Jin Ping's Taiwan policy by virtue of sporadic information sources. It assumes that any Chinese leader's handling Taiwan affairs will be confined to the traditional trajectory of Taiwan policy whereas the leader's personality will also matter during the policy-making process. It will depict the contour of Xi's thinking prior to his becoming the president. Xi has been known for his better understanding of Taiwan affairs. Xi's previous experiences in Taiwan affairs may help him from making more mistakes, but they may also make the space for ambiguities become smaller and smaller. This article will also gauge President Ma Ying-Jeou's rapprochement policy toward Xi's new efforts and the prospects of the Cross-strait relations in a broader sense.