臺灣規律運動比率之趨勢變化：轉折點迴歸分析(2007-2022年)

Changes in trends in people’s engagement in regular exercise in Taiwan: A joinpoint regression analysis (2007-2022)

緒論：臺灣現有的運動相關數據多描述比率之消長說明每年的變化，但未能以統計模型確認運動比率趨勢是否確實有所增長、以及變化的時間點。本研究目的為運用轉折點迴歸分析，探討在2007-2022年間臺灣人口規律運動比率的整體趨勢變化，並分析不同性別、年齡層與縣市之差異。方法：本研究使用教育部體育署之運動現況統計資料（2007-2022年），取得13歲以上人口之規律運動比率和性別、年齡別（13-17歲、18-29歲、30-39歲、40-49歲、50-59歲、60-64歲、65-69歲及≥70歲）與縣市別之規律運動比率，並使用轉折點迴歸分析來估計趨勢的轉折點。結果：整體人口之規律運動比率在2007-2013年呈現明顯上升趨勢，2013年出現轉折，之後至2022年則不再持續上升。男性、18歲以上成人及多數縣市之規律運動比率均與整體人口結果相似；女性與13-17歲年輕族群的規律運動比率，在近十年上升幅度減少但仍持續微幅上升。結論：近十年間臺灣整體規律運動比率未再有明顯上升，不同性別、年齡層及縣市別的規律運動比率趨勢有部分差異。未來需進一步針對影響不同族群規律運動比率趨勢改變的關聯因素進行研究，以利推動策略之擬定。

Introduction: Data on exercise in Taiwan mostly describe annual changes (i.e., rise and fall) in the percentage of people engaging in regular exercise, but whether the changes were evidenced and when the trend changed have not been analyzed using statistical models. This study investigated regular exercise trends and identify differences by sex, age, and county/city in Taiwan between 2007 and 2022 using joinpoint regression analysis. Methods: Data on the annual percentage of people engaging in regular exercise, overall and by sex, age group (13-17, 18-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60- 64, 65-69 and≥70 years), and county/city (2007-2022), were extracted from the Ministry of Education, Taiwan. Joinpoint regression models were used to identify the years in which regular exercise trends changed. Results: The overall percentage of people engaging in regular exercise increased between 2007 and 2013 and stopped increasing between 2013 and 2022. The percentages of regular exercise in males, people aged≥18 years, and most counties/cities residents showed similar trends to that of the overall population; the corresponding percentages for females and young population aged 13-17 years continued to increase, with an attenuated level, until 2022. Conclusion: The overall enegagement in regular exercise did not continue to increase in Taiwan in the last decade, with differences in regular exercise trends between different sexes, age groups, and counties/cities. Further research is required to identify factors related to the recent changes in regular exercise trends in various demographic groups to inform relevant promotion strategies.