影響亞洲基礎建設投資銀行（AIIB）參與因素之探討

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB):Which Countries Participate?

本研究針對尋求加入國在決定是否參加亞洲基礎建設投資銀行（AIIB）時的影響因素，以經濟因素為中心用常態機率分析法（ProbitAnalysis）進行了探討，並歸納出了以下結論：第一、實質GDP 越高的國家，參加亞洲基礎建設投資銀行（AIIB）的機率也越高。第二、對中國出口依存度越高的國家，參加亞洲基礎建設投資銀行（AIIB）的機率也越高。第三、尋求加入國與中國之間的地理距離，對參加率的影響並未達到統計學上認定的顯著水準。第四、尋求加入國與中國間的管治格差，對參加率的影響並未達到統計學上顯著水準。第五、中國的政府開發補助（ODA）對亞洲基礎建設投資銀行（AIIB）的參加機率的影響並未達到統計學上顯著水準。第六、就地區上來檢視，可得知東南亞及太平洋地區、歐洲及中亞地區、中東及北非地區的參加機率，較南北美洲大陸為高。

In this paper, we discuss the decision making of participation in theAsian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) by focusing on economicfactors using probit analysis. The following six factors were identified. First,countries with higher real GDP have a higher probability of participation inthe AIIB. Second, countries with a higher degree of dependence on exports toChina have a higher probability of participation in the AIIB. Third, there isno statistical correlation between the distance of a country from China and itsprobability of participation in the AIIB. Fourth, differences between thegovernance of a country and China have no statistical significance in theparticipation of that country in the AIIB. Fifth, there is no statisticalsignificance in China’s ODA with respect to the probability of participationin the AIIB. Sixth, the probability of AIIB participation is higher forcountries in the East Asia/Pacific, Europe/Central Asia, and the MiddleEast/North Africa regions compared to those in the Americas.