Can “Worse than death” become “Back from the dead?” Faced with the trend of declining birth rates, several countries and cities in Taiwan have introduced numerous policies related to pre- and postnatal subsidies. This article initially consolidates factors influencing birth rates, encompassing economic, demographic, and environmental aspects. It constructs a model of birth rate determinants, integrating the housing-to-income ratio as part of the economic factors. This study aimed to observe the impact of the recent surge in housing prices on birth rates and identify significant influencing factors through regression analysis.
Furthermore, utilizing the difference-in-difference method, this study validates the effectiveness of various pro-natal subsidy policies implemented by local governments in recent years to enhance birth rates. Empirical results indicate that, without considering the effects of specific years, the “Pre-pregnancy Health Checkup” policy in New Taipei City is effective. In fixed-effects models, the “Pre-pregnancy Health Checkup” and “At-home Postpartum Care Service” policies in Taichung City were also found to be effective. However, almost all other policies implemented by different countries and cities have shown limited effectiveness in increasing the overall fertility rate.
Moreover, higher rates of female labor force participation in demographic factors, along with higher unemployment rates and housing-to-income ratios in economic factors, are associated with lower birth rate growth. Nevertheless, the crude marriage rate in terms of demographic factors, positively impacts birth rates.
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