臺灣國立大學潛在合併利得之模擬評估：重複抽樣資料包絡法之應用

A Resampling DEA Simulation of Potential Merger Gains for Public Universities in Taiwan

本文透過事前模擬方式探討台灣高教公立大學合併之潛在效益，這是高教文獻上事前合併模擬之先驅研究。我們利用重覆抽樣資料包絡法，評估虛擬合併組合 (標竿學校合併及教育部規劃合併) 之學校效率及合併利得。結果顯示：在210家標竿合併組合中，僅有約兩成的組合其合併利得為正；教育部規劃合併之11家組合中，亦只有3家為正。這表示約有8成的合併組合其合併利得為負，若合併反而產生不利的效益。因此，事前的合併模擬分析是必要的。研究建議，這些合併利得為正的學校組合均可為未教育部合併規劃時之優先對象，而其中由6所著名研究型大學為軸心之合併組合，及標竿科技大學間之合併組合，更展現優勢，應可優先推動；此外，基於跨區合併之可能趨勢，教育當局亦宜進行建立合適的跨區合併後高教組織或體系之研究。

 

This study investigates the benefits of merging public universities in Taiwan using an ex ante simulation framework. We adopt resampling data envelopment analysis to estimate the efficiency score and merger gain for hypothetical merger cases, including sample merged schools planned by the Ministry of Education formed by the pairwise merger of benchmarked schools. Simulation results indicate that out of 210 sample schools, approximately 20% of benchmark school mergers yield positive outcomes for the merged students and institutions, whereas a mere 3 out of 11 mergers currently planned by the Ministry of Education yielded positive outcomes. These results indicate that approximately 80% of merger cases are ill considered, illustrating the utility of this study’s ex ante merger simulation. Cases of beneficial mergers should serve as models for future mergers. These cases include the proposed merger of six research universities and a merger of benchmarked polytechnical and science universities. In conclusion, the results of this study’s ex ante simulation can assist the Ministry of Education in implementing university mergers.