民眾之兩岸經貿交流認知－－實質利益或政黨認同考量？2010台北市、台中市、高雄市直轄市長選舉個案分析

Substantial Interests or Party Identification? Public’s Cognitions of Cross-strait Economic and Trade Exchanges: Case Analysis of Mayor Election of Three Direct-controlled Municipalities, Taipei City, Taichung City, and Kaohsiung City, in 2010

本研究發現民眾的政黨認同、族群、家庭收入、政治知識均與「兩岸經貿交流認知」有關。分析顯示，政黨認同仍是最主要的分別變數；政黨認同泛藍的民眾，在控制其他變數後（族群、家庭收入、政治知識），泛藍認同者都傾向認為兩岸經貿交流讓台灣經濟變好。至於泛綠支持者的看法則較為分歧，泛綠民眾因收入高低及政治知識高低，對「兩岸經貿交流下，台灣經濟是變好或變壞？」較有不一致的看法。因此民眾對兩岸經貿交流認知，除了地域性差異外，民眾判斷兩岸經貿交流對於台灣經濟之好壞，可能只是政黨認同的另外一種形式反應，而從這個角度的政黨認同，可視為情感上的認同，或視為Fiorina所言之「最低成本的理性抉擇」，但仍不能忽視「實質利益」的影響力。

This study mainly discussed what the Taiwan’s electorate thinking about the influence of cross-strait economic trade interaction towards Taiwan economy after Mr. Ma became the president of Taiwan in 2008. We could find that the ratio of the electorate felt that “the economic interaction policy of cross-strait” implemented after Mr. Ma became the president of Taiwan had a positive influence towards Taiwan economy. Moreover, the electorate felt the macro economy of Taiwan would be benefitted from that economic interaction of cross-strait, but the micro economy of family didn’t. The electorate with higher political knowledge and high family income felt the macro economy of Taiwan would be benefitted from that economic interaction of cross-strait, and the electorate supported Kuomintang. For the electorate who supported Democratic Progressive Party and had high “family income” and high “political knowledge” could make a judgment towards Taiwan economy and cross-strait interaction; thus, what the electorate thinking about that supported Democratic Progressive Party towards “whether the macro economy of Taiwan that benefitted from that economic interaction of cross-strait or not” were more different. In short, the electorate felt the macro economy of Taiwan would be benefitted from that economic interaction of cross-strait, “political party identification” was still more powerful than “family income”, namely the explanatory power of “family income” was lower than “political party identification”. In addition, the political knowledge of the electorate also could explain some degree of this situation. Therefore, besides regional difference, the public’s recognition towards the influence of cross-strait economic interaction to Taiwan economy might only be another form of political party identification. The political party identification from this perspective could be considered as emotional identification or “the rational choice at the lowest cost” described by Fiorina. However, the influence of “actual benefit” could not be neglected.