大國競爭下南韓民意的戰略選項偏好研析

Public Preferences in South Korea toward Strategic Choices in the Context of Great Power Competition

既有的研究與調查出指出南韓民意於2022年總統大選前出現的變化改變其後南韓的外交政策。然而，既有的調查為應答者提供單一的選擇、忽略各項外交政策的選項非互為對立以及未有將南韓的實際國防與外交關係情況納入考量。因此既有的研究難以判斷南韓民眾在中美大國角力下對外交政策選項的態度。為了填補既有研究的不足，本研究採用於2020至2024年由首爾大學統一和平研究院（통일평화연구원）所蒐集的「統一意識調查」（통일의식조사）資料，分析南韓民眾就回應中美大國競爭下的政策偏好。本研究的依變數將南韓民眾回應中美大國角力以及北韓威脅的因素作結合，建構南韓在回應強權競爭下的戰略選項。透過本研究的分析發現，南韓政府雖然在2022年後採取「對美國避險」的外交政策，但是民眾在面對國際格局的不確定因素下，仍然期待南韓在強權之間保持距離（即採用「平衡外交」的政策），以免本國的利益受損。

Existing research and surveys revealed that public opinion played an essential role in altering South Korean policy after the presidential election in 2022. However, the existing survey provided simplistic options for respondents, neglected the possibility of adopting a“hedging”strategy, and failed to include South Korean diplomatic and defense circumstances. Hence, this research adopted the survey data called the“Unification Consciousness Survey”collected from 2020 to 2024 to investigate public attitudes in South Korea toward strategic choices in the context of great power competition. The conceptualization of strategic choices is based on South Korea’s response toward the Sino-U.S. competition and North Korean threats. The research result reveals that Seoul has adopted“hedging with the U.S.”since 2022, but the public still prefers Seoul to adopt“equidistance diplomacy”vis-à-vis China and the U.S. for the sake of ensuring the national interests in the changing strategic environment.