COVID-19後疫情期間印尼上市公司盈餘管理與未來現金流：雙重盈餘管理誘因之證據

Earnings Management and Future Cash Flows among Indonesian Listed Firms in the Post-COVID-19 Period: Evidence of Coexisting Earnings Management Incentives

本文以印尼證券交易所(IDX)上市公司為樣本，檢視2021至2023年COVID-19危機與後疫情復甦期間之盈餘管理行為，並追蹤裁決性應計項目(DA)對未來經營現金流之跨期影響。裁決性應計項目以修正版Jones模型估計，並以Kothari et al.(2005)績效配對殘差作為替代衡量。實證模型納入年度與產業固定效果，並採公司層級叢集標準誤，盈餘管理決定因素模型包含975個公司年度觀察值，經濟後果模型包含256個觀察值。
實證結果顯示，虧損公司之DA顯著低於獲利公司(t=−3.18，p<0.01)，且ROA對DA呈顯著正向影響(係數=0.990，t=5.90，p<0.001)，支持績效較差企業於危機期間傾向進行負向應計調整之洗大澡假說。Leverage在全樣本中未達顯著，但高、低負債組之Chow檢定顯示迴歸結構存在顯著差異(F=7.91，p<0.001)，表示債務契約誘因可能受到OJK疫情期間貸款重組與監理寬限政策削弱。進一步分析發現，當期DA對下一期經營現金流具有顯著負向影響(係數=−0.238，t=−6.20，p<0.001)。排除能源與農業類股後，此效果更為集中(t=−2.91，p<0.01)，並延伸至兩期落後仍達顯著水準(t=−2.09，p<0.05)。整體而言，本文指出後疫情盈餘回升部分來自應計項目迴轉，而非完全反映現金流改善；同時顯示新興市場危機期間可能同時存在洗大澡與債務契約驅動之正向盈餘管理誘因。

This study examines earnings management among Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) listed firms during the COVID-19 crisis and post-pandemic recovery period from 2021 to 2023, and investigates the intertemporal effect of discretionary accruals on future operating cash flows. Discretionary accruals (DA) are estimated using the Modified Jones Model, with Kothari et al. (2005) performance-matched residuals used as an alternative measure. The empirical models include year and industry fixed effects and firm-level clustered standard errors. The determinants model contains 975 firm-year observations, while the economic consequence model contains 256 observations.
The results show that loss firms report significantly lower DA than profitable firms (t =−3.18, p < 0.01), and ROA has a significantly positive effect on DA (coefficient = 0.990, t = 5.90, p < 0.001), supporting the big-bath hypothesis that poorly performing firms are more likely to engage in income-decreasing accrual adjustments during crisis periods. Although leverage is not significant in the full sample, a Chow test indicates significant structural differences between high- and low-leverage firms (F = 7.91, p < 0.001), suggesting that debt-covenant incentives may have been weakened by OJK loan restructuring and regulatory forbearance policies during the pandemic. Further analysis shows that current DA negatively predicts next-period operating cash flows (coefficient =−0.238, t =−6.20, p < 0.001). This effect becomes stronger after excluding energy and agriculture firms (t =−2.91, p < 0.01) and remains significant at the two-period lag (t =−2.09, p < 0.05). Overall, the findings indicate that part of the post-pandemic earnings rebound reflects accrual reversal rather than cash-flow improvement, and that big-bath incentives and debt-covenant-driven income-increasing incentives may coexist in an emerging-market crisis setting.