瑞典的能源政策──由再生能源電力到無化石燃料電力

The Energy Policy of Sweden: From ''100% Renewable Electricity'' to ''100% Fossil-free Electricity''

瑞典1980年全國性核能公投、決議至2010年逐步淘汰核能，因而，於2016年《能源政策框架協議》設定2040年達成「100%再生能源電力」，2045年為淨零年。然2009年開始發展再生能源之一的陸域風機，民眾抗爭由「不要在我家後院」轉變成「不要在任何人家後院」，發展所受到的阻力與障礙超過預期；而太陽因輻射量低、加上無大型儲能設施，又與農地競爭土地是發展太陽光電最大問題；而最關鍵因素是發電業外的其他各部門電氣化的推動，使得電力需求大於預期，將由2024年之1,700億度倍增至2045年3,000億度。因而於2023年修正為「100%無化石燃料電力」，使電力得以成為支援其他產業與部門電氣化之重要支援。此一修正使核能重回能源結構一環，主要是以「是否排放碳」為衡量指標之「技術中立」原則下的選擇。根據國際能源總署2024最新資料顯示，電力消費來自水力、風力和太陽光電、生質能與廢棄物及核能總共為99.52%，已幾近100%無化石燃料，這是包括29.29%核能提供之電力。此外，瑞典善用其高碳稅稅率收入進行「綠色稅收移轉」，針對壞財貨如GHG課碳稅、移轉至所得減稅少及投資抵減，因此得享有減少GHG及經濟發展雙紅效果。最後，觀察一單位能源投入作為電力與熱力的能源消費耗損率，可得知一國能源消費密集度（效率），瑞典1990-2023年平均能源消費耗損率為35.73%，耗損主要源自電力遠距離多方傳輸至歐洲各國線損。而台灣同時期耗損率則為53.42%，主要是台灣能源有大量的化石燃料，損失來自燃燒化石燃料產生電力伴隨廢熱的損失。

The nuclear power referendum of Sweden in 1980 decided to phase-out nuclear power by 2010. Thus, ''Framework Agreement on Energy Policy'' in 2016 sets target of ''100% renewable electricity'' by 2040 and 2045 is the net zero year. The barriers and obstacles in developing onshore wind turbine, one of the major renewable energies, since 2009, however, is much higher than expected. Due to low solar irradiance, the lack of large-scale energy storage facilities, and the competitiveness with farm land use is the largest problem in developing solar photovoltaics. The most crucial factor is the electrification of many sectors other than electricity generation sector has pushed the demand for electricity from 170 Twh in 2024 to 300 Twh in 2045. This has driven the policy switching to ''100% fossil-free electricity'' and enabling electricity to serve as a critical support for the electrification of other industries and sectors. Nuclear restored as one of the components in energy structure is the choice under the main principle of ''technology neutrality,'' i.e. whether there is GHG emission or not. According to the newest available data in 2024, the electricity is generated by hydro power, onshore wind turbine and solar photovoltaics, biomass and waster, and nuclear has already been 99.52%. This almost achieves 100% fossil-free electricity. Nuclear power has contributed 29.29% among all sources of electricity generation. Moreover, Sweden uses its high carbon tax for a ''green tax shift'', i.e. taxing environmental bad such as GHG and shifting the burden toward reducing income tax and providing investment credits. This creates a 'double dividend' by cutting emissions while boosting the economy. Finally, it deserves to observe the energy transformation and distribution loss rate for one unit of energy input in electricity and/or heating generation. The loss rate represents the energy consumption intensity (efficiency). The average loss rate is 35.73% in 1990-2023 for Sweden. The loss is mainly from transmission and distribution losses across the European grids. The loss rate in the same period for Taiwan is 53.42%. This relatively higher rate mainly results from waste heat during fossil fuel combustion for electricity generation.