The Lagged Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Travel-Related Policies on Visitor Numbers to Tourist Attractions

COVID-19疫情滯後效應與旅遊政策對景點遊客人次的影響

2019年底疫情爆發重創臺灣觀光，政府陸續推出出入境管制及旅遊補助政策以防疫並振興經濟。本研究以實際出遊行為進行探討，以更準確了解疫情與旅遊相關政策對景點遊客人次的影響，選取四個景點蒐集疫情期間每日遊客人次，以2019年為基年計算人次變動率。結果顯示，不同景點人次變動率差異顯著，疫情造成出遊滯後效應，第一階段滯後天數最長，平均約11.3天。納入滯後效應可提升迴歸模型解釋力，野柳在第一、四階段分別與交通及住宿補助呈正相關，顯示補助具階段性效果；SARIMA模型顯示疫情期間日遊客量仍呈每週週期變化，景點遊客人次在短期波動、季節性週期及趨勢穩定性上具有不同模式。整體而言，旅遊補助效果有限和出入境隔離管制不會增加國內旅遊人次。

At the end of 2019, the COVID-19 outbreak severely impacted Taiwan’s tourism industry. The government implemented border quarantine controls and tourism subsidy policies to contain the pandemic and stimulate the economy. To understand more accurately the impact of the pandemic and related travel policies on visitor numbers at tourist attractions, this study examined tourists’revealed behaviors by analyzing daily visitor statistics. Daily visitor data were collected from four attractions during the pandemic, with 2019 as the baseline year to calculate fluctuation rates. The results indicated significant differences in visitor fluctuation rates across attractions, with evidence of delayed travel behavior due to the pandemic. The longest lagged day, averaging 11.3 days, occurred in the first phase. Incorporating lagged effects improved the explanatory power of the regression models. At Yehliu Geopark, visitor numbers were positively correlated with transportation subsidies in the first phase and accommodation subsidies in the fourth phase, highlighting stage-specific policy effectiveness. The SARIMA model showed that daily visitor numbers continued to exhibit a weekly cyclical pattern during the pandemic. The number of visitors at tourist attractions displayed different patterns in terms of short-term fluctuations, seasonal cycles, and trend stability. Overall, the effects of tourism subsidies were limited, and border quarantine controls did not increase domestic visitor numbers.