中國大陸軍事演習與臺灣國家認同的變化：一項調查實驗設計

China’s Military Drills and the Changing National Identity in Taiwan: A Survey Experiment Design

臺灣學界對國家認同的研究，大都認為具有長久不變的特質，我們不同意這個觀點。我們認為臺灣社會的國家認同，存有雙重認同的本質（臺灣人與中國人），大部份人的差異是程度的高低，而不是類別上的不同。人們極可能會透過強化某種特定的身分的認同，以降低因外在條件對該認同的削弱，而產生身分的不確定感。基於此觀點，本文透過實驗問卷，探究當臺灣國家認同在中國大陸軍事威脅下所呈現的變化。調查結果顯示，短期性的軍演威脅，對臺灣國家認同的改變不大。然而，加入「美中」軍事實力對比這項額外資訊後，國家認同卻呈現變化。當受試者得知在兵棋推演中，中國大陸呈現軍事優勢時，對臺灣人的認同只有些微提高；而當受試者得知在兵棋推演中，美國佔據優勢時，對中國人的認同卻有顯著的升高。具有潛在中國人認同者，在美國具備軍事優勢的狀態下，感受到其原本認同，將隨著臺灣獨立的可能性增加而受到威脅，因此藉由對中國人認同，來減低其身分的不確定性。本研究的發現，對當前深受兩岸關係制約的臺灣國家認同，提供了另一種理解的途徑。

Current academic consensus on Taiwan’s national identity assumes that, once formed, it is long-lasting and invariant. However, in cases where multiple identities overlap, individuals may strengthen a specific identity to reduce the uncertainty caused by external factors that weaken it. Building on this theoretical perspective and using a survey experiment, this study explores the changes in Taiwan’s national identity under the shadow of Mainland China’s military threat.
Our findings show that short-term military exercises have little effect on respondents’national identities. However, the respondents’national identities diverged when information on the U.S.–China military imbalance was provided. Respondents’Taiwanese identities increased only slightly when they were given information about Mainland China’advantage over the U.S. in a wargame simulation. Conversely, when respondents learned that the U.S. holds an advantage in the simulation, their Chinese identities rose sharply. This is because those with a latent Chinese identity perceive a threat to their Chinese identity from the possibility of Taiwanese independence insured by U.S. military superiority. In response, they strongly identified with their Chinese identity to reinforce its certainty.
The study’s findings provide an alternative approach to understanding contemporary Taiwan’s national identity, which is heavily influenced by shifting cross-strait relationships.