社群媒體與選舉預測：文獻檢閱的觀點

A Review on Social Media Based Election Forecasting

就民意調查作為一個選舉預測的分析工具而言，「傳統電話民調」由於愈來愈難找到合格受訪者，似乎已漸漸失去精準性；而運用網路社群媒體資料進行選舉預測的「大數據」或「社群媒體」預測，正方興未艾。本文的問題意識是：在社群媒體與選舉預測這個新興領域目前有哪些相關研究？既有的研究又是使用哪些途徑（指標）來運用社群媒體資料進行選舉預測？又有哪些限制？本文將透過（國外）文獻檢閱的方式，做一鳥瞰介紹，並對社群媒體民調與傳統民調在選舉預測上的角色與運用，做出初步建議。

With the greater (non)coverage error among traditional polls, social media based election prediction has been highly spotted in recent years. There was a lot of literature focusing on this matter about what are the research approaches and indicators to be used for social media based election prediction, and their restrictions. This article will make a bird's eye view over established literature related, and make preliminary suggestions on the role and application of social media as well as traditional polls in election forecasting.