「雙重功能」再現？佐科威時期印尼文武關係與政治發展

The Return of Dwifungsi? Civil-military Relations and Political Development in Indonesia under Joko Widodo

2024年印尼總統選舉，由具軍方背景的普拉伯沃（Prabowo Subianto）勝出；2025年3月印尼國會通過《2004年國民軍法》修正案，放寬軍職人員擔任文職職位之限制。這些發展凸顯印尼文武關係在新興民主體制下所持續扮演的關鍵角色。自1998年民主轉型以來，印尼雖建立基本文人控制安排，軍方影響力受到節制，然近年發展顯示文武權力平衡的微妙變化，引發對民主鞏固與制度穩定的質疑。本文以Kuehn & Croissant(2023)所提出的文人控制模型為理論架構，檢視民主轉型以來印尼文武關係的脈動，有鑑於佐科威（Joko Widodo）總統任內文武關係所呈現的矛盾訊號，本文特別聚焦此一具有驗證理論潛力的代表性時期。研究發現，除國防與軍事組織面向停滯外，菁英甄補、公共政策與內部安全面向皆呈現不同程度的退化。此發展與執政菁英政治考量、市民社會力量相對薄弱、國內安全威脅重新浮現以及軍方致力維繫其部門利益相關。本文指出，軍方影響力的持續滲透與成長，對印尼民主鞏固構成實質挑戰。

The victory of Prabowo Subianto, a former general in the New Order era, followed by the passage of the amended 2004 TNI Law in March 2025－which relaxed restrictions on active military personnel holding civilian posts－highlights the significance that civil-military relations continues to play under Indonesia’s emerging regime. While civilian control has been established since the country’s democratic transition in 1998, recent developments suggest a subtle reconfiguration of power between civilian authorities and the military, raising concerns about democratic consolidation and institutional stability. This study employs the civilian control model proposed by Kuehn and Croissant (2023) to examine Indonesia’s civil-military relations following the democratic transition during the Suharto era. In light of the contradictory signals observed during President Joko Widodo’s administration, the study focuses on this period, which offers potential for theoretical validation. The findings reveal that most dimensions, especially elite recruitment, policymaking, and internal security, have experienced varying degrees of regression or stagnation. These developments are associated with the strategic calculations of political elites, the relative weakness of civil society, the re-emergence of domestic security threats, and the military’s efforts to maintain its institutional interests. Even in the absence of overt intervention, the military’s growing influence constitutes a substantive challenge to the consolidation of democracy in Indonesia.