從浪漫英雄到毒梟剋星：分析菲律賓民粹主義的演化

From Romantic Hero to Drug Lord Slayer: An Analysis of the Evolution of Populism in the Philippines

本研究透過比較菲律賓兩位總統艾斯特拉達和杜特蒂的崛起與沒落，試圖理解菲律賓民粹領袖如何利用政治敘事動員支持者，以及與關鍵戰略群體的互動對其政權穩定的重要性。本研究認為，外部的政治經濟條件和民粹領袖以往的成功經驗是構成政治敘事內容與強度的重要因素。一旦政治敘事形成後，民粹領袖需與關鍵戰略群體合作以轉化為政策，政策成功則強化合作，否則可能導致領袖被推翻。兩個比較個案研究發現，艾斯特拉達以「劫富濟貧英雄式」民粹主義崛起，強調與貧民同在、反貪腐和社會正義，但因與天主教會和軍警的緊張關係最終被迫下台。杜特蒂則以「刑罰式民粹主義」為特徵，通過嚴厲打擊犯罪和毒品問題獲得支持，並成功運用與軍警的合作鞏固政權。這些結果突顯了關鍵戰略團體在菲律賓政治中的重要性，並展示了民粹主義在不同領導人治理下的相似性和差異性。

This study compares the rise and fall of two Philippine presidents, Joseph Estrada and Rodrigo Duterte, to understand how populist leaders in the Philippines utilize political narratives to mobilize supporters and how interactions with critical strategic groups affect regime stability. The study posits that external political and economic conditions, along with the past successes of populist leaders, are crucial factors shaping the content and strength of political narratives. Once these narratives are formed, populist leaders must collaborate with critical strategic groups to transform them into policy; successful policies reinforce this collaboration, while failure may lead to the leader’s downfall. Evidence from the two comparative case studies reveals that Estrada rose with a“Robin Hood-style”populism, emphasizing solidarity with the poor, anti-corruption, and social justice, but was eventually forced to step down due to strained relations with the Catholic Church and the military. In contrast, Duterte’s“penal populism”focused on harshly crackdowns on crime and drugs, successfully leveraging cooperation with the police and military to consolidate power. These findings highlight the importance of critical strategic groups in Philippine politics and illustratethe similarities and differences in how populism manifests under different leaders.