台灣當局對毛澤東不連任國家主席的研判與反應

Taiwan Authorities’Assessment and Response to Mao Zedong’s Decision not to Be the Next President of the PRC

中共八屆六中全會同意毛澤東提出的不作下屆國家主席候選人的決定，以便毛澤東集中精力思考和處理黨和國家的大政方針問題及馬克思列寧主義的理論工作，台灣當局在中共未官方發佈此消息前由派往香港的情報人員電訊截聽到該情報，並率先登報公佈，稱情報來自「內部人」傳遞。在收到情報後，台灣當局展開研判，由於當時兩岸金門炮戰後的緊張局勢以及台灣當局爭取美國援助、凝聚內部共識的需要，其研判認為毛澤東不連任國家主席應是「外力所致」，而非自願，衍生出「陰謀論」和「權力鬥爭說」，並在此基礎上展開了包括廣播、空投、對外宣傳等手段的「心理作戰」，以求營造有利於台灣的內外部條件。基於對中蘇兩黨關係、大陸內部形勢的誤判，台灣當局認為反攻大陸的條件日漸成熟，加速制定了以傘兵空降特種作戰為主的「武漢計畫」，但該計劃終因國民黨中緬邊境作戰部隊被擊潰和無法獲得美國的有力支持而「擱淺」。台灣當局對毛澤東不連任國家主席的研判與反應折射出在世界冷戰和兩岸激烈對峙背景下，一則消息被扭曲為「謠言」的過程，同時也反映了冷戰時期台灣當局的思考和行為模式，這種模式對台灣地區中共研究產生了影響，梳理和還原這一歷史過程有利於撥開「迷霧」，促進中國大陸學界與域外中共研究界的對話，展現中共黨史和中共政治運作的原本面貌。

The CPC’s Sixth Plenary Session of the Eighth Central Committee agreed with Mao Zedong’s decision that he would not to be the candidate of the next presidential election, so that Mao Zedong could concentrate on major policy issues and the theoretical work of the party and the country. Before the official release of this information, KMT’s intelligence officers intercepted the intelligence and first published it in the newspapers, falsely claiming that the intelligence came from“insiders”. After receiving the intelligence, the KMT conducted research and judgment. Due to the tense situation after the Kinmen artillery battle and the need for KMT to bundle US aid and build internal consensus, the KMT concluded that Mao Zedong’s decision should be“due to external forces”, developed“conspiracy theory”and“power struggle theory”, and on this basis, it launched“psychological operations”including broadcasting, airdrops, external propaganda and other means in order to create internal and external conditions that are beneficial to KMT. Based on the misjudgment of the relationship between the CPC and CPSU and the internal situation of the CPC, the KMT believed that the conditions for“counterattacking on the mainland”were becoming increasingly mature, and it accelerated the formulation of the“Wuhan Plan”focusing on paratrooper airborne special operations. However, the plan ultimately failed, because the KMT’s troop was defeated and the KMT was unable to obtain strong support from the USA. The KMT’s assessment and reaction to Mao Zedong’s decision reflects the process that a piece of news was distorted to a piece of“rumor”in the background of the world’s Cold War and fierce cross-strait confrontation. It also reflected the thinking and behavioral patterns of the KMT. This model had a negative impact on the study of the CPC in Taiwan. Restoring this historical process will help us to clear up the“mist”and show the original appearance of the history of the CPC and its political process.