「威權擴張」與「民主衰退」關係之論辯：中國「一帶一路」參與國的案例研究

The Debate on the Relationship between“Authoritarian Expansion”and“Democratic Backsliding”: Case Study of Countries Participating in China’s Belt and Road Initiative

許多觀點指出全球民主衰退的威脅來自於以中國為首的威權大國，威權國家藉威權輸出的政策、手段擴張威權，破壞全球自由民主的秩序。然而，威權擴張真的會造成全球民主衰退嗎？威權大國真的在擴張威權政治嗎？故本文對「威權擴張」造成全球「民主衰退」的正反論點歸納分析，並提出區分威權擴張之類型的分析框架，分別為：「攻勢型威權擴張」、「防禦型威權擴張」與「無威權擴張」。本研究發現：威權國家之型態應屬「防禦型威權擴張」，其意圖未主動、積極採取相關政策與行動擴張威權政治，但當面臨「國家政權穩固」、「保護國家安全與利益」、「受國際自由民主意識型態之刺激」等境況時會採取防衛的行為，並在面對不同對象、問題、利益時，其形態上有時會往「攻勢型威權擴張」或「無威權擴張」的方向偏移，但一般多處於「防禦型」的情況；並且本文對「一帶一路」及與之密切關聯的國家作探討，發現中國並未藉由「一帶一路」主動擴張威權政治。此外，本研究認為不論民主國家或威權國家皆有合作、建立友誼、提供援助等行為，威權國家的作為是基於自我保護的動機，故全球民主衰退或朝威權主義發展的趨勢並不能說明是中國等威權國家擴張威權所致。

Many opinions point out that the threat of global democratic backsliding comes from the authoritarian powers headed by China. Authoritarian countries expand authoritarianism through policies and means, and destroy the order of global freedom and democracy. Does the authoritarian expansion really cause the democratic backsliding? Are authoritarian powers really expanding their authoritarian politics? To this end, this article summarizes and analyzes the positive and negative aspects of“authoritarian expansion”causing“democratic backsliding”, and proposes an analytical framework to distinguish the types of authoritarian expansion, which are“Offensive Authoritarian Expansion”,“Defensive Authoritarian Expansion”and“None Authoritarian Expansion”. This article argues that the type of authoritarian state should be“Defensive Authoritarian Expansion”. The states not adopt relevant policies and actions to expand authoritarian with aggressive intention, but when face with“political stability”,“protecting national security and interests”and“stimulated by international liberal democratic ideology”and other situations, they will adopt defensive behaviors, and when facing different objects, problems, and interests, their type will sometimes move toward“Offensive Authoritarian Expansion”or“None Authoritarian Expansion”. Generally, they remain in a“defensive”situation. Furthermore, this article explores the“Belt and Road initiative”and the countries closely related to it, and finds that China has not actively expanded its authoritarian politics through the“Belt and Road initiative”. In addition, the article believes that both democratic and authoritarian countries adopt behaviors of cooperation, friendship, and assistance cooperate, and authoritarian countries act based on self-protection motives. Therefore, the decline of global democracy or the trend toward authoritarianism cannot be explained by the expansion of authoritarian countries such as China.