「修昔底德陷阱」的陷阱：美國霸權擴張與衰落的根源反思

The Trap of the ''Thucydides Trap'': Rethinking the Roots of U.S. Hegemonic Expansion and Decline

隨著中美衝突加劇，台海情勢更加嚴峻，「注定一戰」的想像大行其道。如此認知相當程度來自於哈佛大學教授艾利森提出的「修昔底德陷阱」，然而該理論奠基於西方零和博弈的二元對立邏輯，以「權力」觀念看待一切，認定美國霸權必然會壓制中國崛起，從而推導出中國威脅論，成為「好戰派」人士的理論底氣，進而陷入了「修昔底德陷阱」的陷阱，與中國傳統文化與當代世界觀相悖。艾利森近來強調，中美戰爭並非不可避免，雙方應追求相互依存、共同發展，尋找兩國正確相處之道。如今世界烽火漫天，滅火的關鍵在於能否超越、克服「修昔底德陷阱」的陷阱，既意味著美國霸權「強權即公理」隕落之可能，同時也體現台灣角色之重要，更攸關台灣未來如何安身立命。

As tensions between China and the United States intensify and the situation across the Taiwan Strait becomes increasingly precarious, the notion of an ''inevitable war'' has gained traction. This perception largely stems from Harvard professor Graham Allison's concept of the ''Thucydides Trap.'' However, the theory is grounded in a binary logic of Western zero-sum thinking, interpreting international relations solely through the lens of ''power.'' It presumes that U.S. hegemony will inevitably suppress China's rise, thereby legitimizing the ''China threat'' narrative and empowering hawkish advocates. Ironically, this approach becomes a trap in itself-the trap of the Thucydides Trap-as it conflicts with both traditional Chinese cultural values and contemporary global perspectives. Recently, Allison has emphasized that war between China and the U.S. is not inevitable, urging both sides to pursue mutual interdependence and shared development in search of a viable path toward peaceful coexistence. In a world increasingly engulfed by conflict, the key to extinguishing the flames lies in transcending and overcoming this conceptual trap. Doing so not only suggests the potential demise of the hegemonic belief that ''might makes right,'' but also underscores the critical role of Taiwan and the existential choices it faces in securing its future.