霸權競爭與戰爭的動力學：重探吉爾平的霸權戰爭理論

The Dynamics of Hegemonic Competition and Hegemonic War: Revisiting Robert Gilpin's Theory of Hegemonic War

人類歷史上不乏有霸權競爭與戰爭的案例，對此國際關係學界也有不少相關的理論可以加以說明。但在這些理論中，只有吉爾平的霸權戰爭理論對於霸權的競爭與戰爭的運作機制、過程與邏輯提出一個比較完整的理論解釋。儘管吉爾平的理論在冷戰後期曾經引發關注，但冷戰結束後全球化與相互依賴的深化，使人們低估了霸權競逐導致霸權戰爭的可能性，其理論也因而不再引人矚目。
然而，隨著中國大陸的崛起，在經濟規模、軍事力量、意識形態、外交謀略、甚至政治體制等各方面對美國都構成了巨大的挑戰，有些美國人士甚至認為，中國已經構成「存在性的威脅」（existential threat）。由於美國逐漸意識到中國取代其霸權的可能性，因此逐步加大其壓制中國的力度，從經濟、科技、軍事等各方面對中國進行脫鉤與壓制。此外，中美之間還有一個台灣問題，此一問題不僅涉及雙方的核心利益，還涉及雙方的面子與尊嚴，使得此一問題具有相當的爆炸性，恐有引發戰爭之虞。
本文試圖依據吉爾平的理論來論證，就中美關係未來的發展而言，霸權戰爭的可能性是不能排除的。但本文的目的不是要做預測，而是希望重探吉爾平的理論，以對當前中美關係的發展做一個理論性的說明。

There are many cases of hegemonic competition and war in the history of mankind, and there are many related theories in the international relations that attempt to explain them. However, among these theories, only Gilpin's theory of hegemonic war explains the underlying mechanism, process and logic of hegemonic competition and war, as well as puts forward a relatively complete theoretical explanation. Although his theory had attracted attention in the late Cold War period, after the end of the Cold War, however, the deepening of globalization and interdependence made people underestimate the possibility of hegemonic competition leading to hegemonic wars, and Gilpin's theory therefore no longer attracted much attention. However, with the rise of China, it has posed a serious threat to the United States in terms of economic scale, military power, ideology, diplomatic strategy, and even political system, and some Americans even believe that China has constituted an ''existential threat''. As the U.S. has gradually realized the possibility of China replacing its hegemony, it has gradually stepped up its efforts to suppress China, decoupling and blocking it in various aspects such as economy, science and technology, and military affairs. In addition, there is the Taiwan issue between China and the United States, which not only involves the core interests of both sides, but also involves the face and dignity of both sides, making this issue quite explosive and threatens to trigger a war.
This paper attempts to argue, based on Gilpin's theory, that the possibility of a hegemonic war cannot be ruled out in terms of the future development of US-China relations. However, the purpose of this paper is not to make a prediction, but to revisit Gilpin's theory in order to make a theoretical explanation of the current development of US-China relations.