抗衡或扈從？馬政府時期（2008-2016）的南海政策

Balancing or Bandwagoning? the South China Sea Policy during Ma Ying-jeou's Reign (2008-2016)

本文分析前總統馬英九執政時期的南海政策，藉以凸顯在其執政時期的大陸政策。若將國際關係現實主義理論的觀點略作調整，並以之類比為兩個有大小之分的政治實體是行為主體，則多認為台灣在美國與中國大陸兩強爭霸下，所能做的有限，甚至只能在抗衡與扈從中共裡擇一為之。經由本文透過個案的研究指出，馬政府執政時期在重大政策的選擇上，往往未如理論預期地只在抗衡和扈從間做出選擇。而在民進黨蔡英文總統執政的一開始，則顯然走向了抗衡的策略與政策。

This paper argues that there are important differences between the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)’s policies toward Mainland China. In the past, from the perspective of the realism in international relations, most observers thought that Taiwan could not maneuver independently between the two super powers, the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and that Taiwan could only choose between balancing against, or bandwagoning with the PRC. However, the main difference between the KMT and DPP from the perspective of Taiwan’s society is the policy toward the mainland. Will Taiwan's political party rotation lead to different mainland policies? Making use of case studies, this paper points out that the general policies of the two parties may converge, but differences can be seen in Mainland affairs policies.