公允價值模型對分析師預測特性的影響：來自房地產公司的證據

The Effect of the Fair Value Reporting Model on Analyst Forecast Properties: Evidence from Real Estate Firms

本研究以美國與英國的房地產公司為樣本，探討會計準則變動是否影響分析師預測行為。我們發現，當英國自部分公允價值模式（原英國會計準則）轉向全面公允價值模式（IFRS）時，分析師的預測分歧短暫上升；然而，該分歧在IFRS實施數年後消失。此外，當損益表與資產負債表皆依據全面公允價值模式編製時，財務報表提供了更直接的資訊，縮短分析師修正預測所需的反應時間。這種反應時間的縮短並非立即顯現，而是在IFRS實施後數年才逐漸顯著。最後，我們重新檢視Liang and Riedl（2014）的研究，發現IFRS導致的預測誤差增加亦屬暫時性現象。整體而言，本研究指出，會計準則的變更對分析師行為的影響具有明顯的時間動態特徵。

Using a sample of US and UK real estate firms, this study investigates whether changes in accounting standards impact analyst forecast properties. It reveals that a shift from the partial fair value reporting model (UK domestic standards) to the full fair value reporting model (IFRS) temporarily increases forecast dispersion; however, this increase disappears several years after adoption. The study also finds that, when both income statements and balance sheets are reported under the full fair value model, financial statements become more straightforward, reducing analysts’ forecast revision response time. This reduction only becomes pronounced several years following IFRS adoption, meaning that the effect is not immediate. Finally, the study revisits Liang and Riedl (2014) and shows that the increase in forecast error is temporary in the post-IFRS period. Overall, this work documents that the change in accounting standards has a time-varying effect on analyst behavior.