美國戰略清晰化與臺灣避險策略

The United States Strategic Clarity and Taiwan’s Hedging Policy

本研究目的在建立美國傳統戰略模糊與臺灣避險策略間之理論關聯性。主要假設當臺灣從美國獲得較多且明確之安全承諾時，將可能更依賴美國安全保護傘，進而降低自身制定外交政策之自主與靈活性。過去數十年，華盛頓持續且長期的安全承諾，即有可能限制臺灣的避險策略選擇。本研究的實證證據，主要探討川普與拜登政府任內，華府戰略模糊逐漸轉變為戰略清晰下，臺北在美中兩強之間的外交政策。此外，藉由將避險的理論「模型化」，並區別避險與樞紐的關係，是本文另一個研究貢獻。

The study aims to establish a theoretical connection between strategic ambiguity and hedging policy. The assumption is that as Taiwan receives more security assurance and clarity from the United States, it may rely more on the U.S. security umbrella, reducing its autonomy and flexibility in crafting its foreign policy. Over time, consistent and prolonged security commitments from the United States could limit Taiwan’s hedging options, as it increasingly aligns with the U.S. position. The empirical evidence in this article explores how shifting from strategic ambiguity to clarity during Trump and Biden’s administrations, and compares various factors, including domestic politics, regional dynamics, and international developments, will shape Taiwan’s approach in a contested and complex geopolitical landscape.
In addition, Taiwan’s hedging strategy has weakened as the United States has shifted from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity. Will the hedging behavior at other levels also be affected? With the widespread application of big data and artificial intelligence, the United States is gradually paying attention to its demand for high-end chips. As Taiwan has played the major role in the global chip supply chain, facing the intensification of the technology war between the United States and China, this project aims to provide theoretical and empirical materials on the role Taiwan faces in the technology field.