「避險」考量下的歐中關係：「歐俄之間的外交歧異」如何影響「歐洲各國與中國之間的合作與衝突」

Europe-China Relations Under the Logic of Hedging: How“Diplomatic Divergences Between Europe and Russia”Shape“Cooperation and Conflict Between European Countries and China”

本文研究同時具有「北約組織」和「歐盟」會員國身分的歐洲國家與中國之間的關係。同時具有這兩個會員國身分的國家，除了是歐洲「最為民主」和「最具安全保障」的國家之外，也因為須配合這兩個國際建制的官方立場，因而在理論上應該要對中國採取方向一致的經濟、外交和安全政策。然而，近年來，隨著「美國對中政策的轉變」、「歐盟在移民和經濟議題上的分裂」，以及「北約組織各國在安全議題上的分歧」，中國對歐洲國家「分而治之」的爭議也浮上檯面。在經濟和安全皆有保障的情況之下，是否有什麼系統性的因素可以解釋歐洲各國與中國之間的關係呢？本文認為，由於歐、中之間的距離遙遠，中國對歐洲並不構成直接的安全威脅，再加上「俄國對歐洲各國的安全威脅日益明顯」且「中俄之間的合作關係日益緊密」的事實，因此對於歐洲國家來說，「他們與俄國之間的關係」就成為影響「他們與中國之間的關係」的重要影響因素：與俄國在外交利益上的歧異程度愈大的歐洲國家，由於民主與人權的價值觀、美國的呼籲，以及中國支持俄國等因素的影響，故將與中國有著更多的衝突；但另一方面，在經濟需求的考量之下，這些國家也將與中國有著更多的合作。這兩個看似矛盾的推論其實表示的是，歐洲國家對中國採取了一個非常標準的「避險」行為，這是歐洲各國在權衡「經濟機會」和「安全風險」之後的理性選擇。來自22個同時具有「歐盟」和「北約組織」會員國身分的歐洲國家從2005~2022年的經驗證據支持了本文的論點。

This paper examines the relationships between China and the European countries that hold dual membership in both NATO and EU. These countries, being among the most democratic and secure in Europe, are theoretically expected to adopt consistent economic, diplomatic, and security policies toward China in line with the official positions of these two international institutions. However, in recent years, shifts in U.S. policy towards China, divisions within the EU on migration and economic issues, and security disagreements within NATO have brought China’s“divide and conquer”strategy in Europe to the forefront. Given their secure economic and security status, are there systemic factors that can explain the varying relationships between European states and China? This paper argues that the geographic distance between Europe and China, coupled with the absence of a direct security threat from China and the growing security threat posed by Russia—as well as the deepening cooperation between China and Russia- make relations with Russia a key determinant of Europe’s relations with China. On the one hand, European countries whose foreign policy interests diverge more significantly from those of Russia are likely to experience greater conflicts with China, driven by factors such as democratic and human rights values, calls from the United States, and China’s support for Russia. However, on the other hand, due to economic considerations, these countries are also expected to engage in greater cooperation with China. This seemingly paradoxical outcome suggests that European states are engaging in a standard“hedging”strategy toward China, a rational choice balancing“economic opportunities”and“security risks”. Empirical evidence from 22 European countries with dual EU and NATO membership from 2005 to 2022 supports this argument.