臺灣民眾的災害經驗、社會資本、未來時間導向與氣候風險感知

Natural Hazards Experiences, Social Capital, Future Time Orientation, and Climate Risk Perception in Taiwan

為確保氣候政策能有效應對氣候變遷衝擊，公民社會的積極參與至關重要。民眾對於氣候政策行動的支持取決於他們的氣候風險感知。不同於過去文獻多半分別討論社會情境脈絡與個人心理因素對氣候風險感知的影響，本文嘗試整合不同領域的理論觀點，同時檢驗災害經驗、社會資本與未來時間導向是否與臺灣民眾的氣候風險認知有關聯。運用2020年《臺灣社會變遷基本調查》與縣市層級的官方統計資料進行多層次分析（multilevel analysis）的結果，本文發現，當個人曾參與環保連署或抗議遊行、自認極端天氣對其居住社區有負面影響，或較關注行為的未來後果時，他們傾向認為氣候變遷對臺灣或全球帶來更多負面影響。此外，當民眾居住在降雨異常的地區，或是自認極端天氣對其居住社區有負面影響時，較頻繁參與在社區環境維護活動的人會傾向認為氣候變遷會帶來負面影響。總的來說，為了提高民眾氣候風險感知，自主參與社區環保或是防災活動的政策措施值得持續推動。強化民眾與環境議題相關的政治參與也是另一個能讓民眾察覺氣候變遷正在發生的方式。最後，善用政策溝通與行銷的政策工具，喚起民眾對當前行為所造成未來後果的關注，也有助於提升氣候風險感知，進而促成必要的行為改變和政策支持。

Why do some Taiwanese individuals perceive a heightened risk of climate change whereas others do not? While previous studies have examined the independent influences of social contextual variables and psychological factors on public risk perception of climate change, limited attention has been paid to their potential joint influence. This paper hypothesizes that, in addition to natural hazard disaster experiences and future time orientation, different types of social capital may be associated with the public's risk perception of climate change. Also, disaster experiences may moderate the association between social capital and risk perception. Using data from the 2020 Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSCS) and official disaster risk statistics from the government of Taiwan (R.O.C.), hierarchical linear modeling provides empirical supports for these hypotheses. Results show that higher levels of linking social capital, severe subjective experiences with natural hazards, and greater concerns for future outcomes are positively associated with climate risk perception. Moreover, individuals with lower perceived threats of natural disaster or less exposure to extreme weather events exhibit heightened concern about climate change, when they have higher bonding social capital, as measured by community engagement levels. These findings suggest that community disaster preparedness programs, initiatives that promote political engagement in environmental and climate issues, and policy framings emphasizing the future consequences of individual actions have the potential to enhance public awareness of climate risk.