美國軍事聯盟與臺海未來軍事衝突之析探

An Analysis of the U.S. Military Alliances and a Future Military Conflict in the Taiwan Strait

近年中國人民解放軍在我國四周海域實施常態化軍事演練，根據美國國防部2022年《中共軍力報告書》指出，中共已具備第一島鏈內「反介入／區域拒止」（Anti-Access/Area Denial）的能力，若中共武力犯臺，首先必先海空封鎖臺灣，防止外國勢力介入臺灣問題。然而臺灣海峽為連接南海與東海的海上重要渠道，若臺灣海峽通行權受影響，則勢必影響印太地區國家的貿易活動。本文藉由文獻研究法，論證臺灣海峽通行權受影響時，以美國為主的外國勢力如何介入臺海事務。

In recent years the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has carried out regular military exercises around Taiwan. According to the U.S. Defense Report, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2022, the PLA possesses“Anti-Access/Area Denial”ability within the first island Chain. If China were to invade Taiwan the first step would be to establish a total Air and Maritime Blockade around Taiwan to prevent foreign forces from intervening in a Taiwan Strait conflict. The Taiwan Strait is an important route connecting the South China Sea and East China Sea. If right of passage through the Taiwan Strait is blocked it will affect trade activities of the whole Indo-Pacific region. This article employes the method of scenario analysis to examine how foreign powers, mainly the United States, would intervene in such a conflict.