中國大陸軍機艦近臺、兩岸經貿與臺灣選舉變化之研究

A Study of Mainland China’s Military Aircraft and Warships Approaching Taiwan, Cross-Strait Economy and Trade, and Changes in Taiwan’s Elections

本論文研究中國大陸軍機艦接近臺灣、兩岸進出口數據與臺灣選舉等變化議題。可知中國大陸軍機艦近臺與兩岸經貿數據，可能會對臺灣選舉產生重大影響。由分析可知在政黨選舉得票率上，民主進步黨平均數小於中國國民黨，但民進黨得票率最大值大於國民黨。而中國大陸軍機艦近臺數離散範圍非常大，且中國大陸軍機艦有增加趨勢。臺灣對中國大陸及香港進出口雖有減少之趨勢，但仍非常高。再由時間序列分析經單根檢定後各變數為1階整合變數I（1）。以Johansen共整合檢定發現中國大陸軍機艦、兩岸進出口與民進黨選舉得票率間存在共整合關係，即有長期穩定關係。且較支持民進黨之臺灣人民對中國大陸軍機艦接近臺灣並沒有明顯恐懼感，而對兩岸經貿仍持正面看待。但中國大陸軍機艦、兩岸進出口與國民黨得票率間無共整合關係，因而兩岸貿易對國民黨選舉得票率幫助並不顯著。且中國大陸軍機艦變化也與國民黨得票率沒有顯著長期穩定關係。本研究與傳統文獻有關論述最大不同在於使用實證研究方法，且發現在中國大陸軍機艦近臺頻率與數量皆越來越多趨勢下，卻在實徵上證實反效果。這些發現非常值得後續有關研究再反思其背後道理。

This study explored the data of Mainland China's military aircraft and warships approaching Taiwan's periphery, the Cross-Strait imports and exports data, and the changes in Taiwan's elections in recent years. It can be seen that the data on the Mainland China's military aircraft and warships approaching Taiwan and the Cross-Strait economy and trade data may have significant impacts on Taiwan's elections, especially in the changes in the vote share of political parties. From the statistical analysis, it can be seen that in terms of the vote share of the top two political parties in Taiwan, the average vote share of the DPP is smaller than that of the KMT, but the maximum vote share of the DPP is greater than that of the KMT. In terms of the number of military aircraft and warships of Mainland China, the discrete range of the maximum and minimum values is very large, and the standard deviation is also large. Moreover, the number of military aircraft and warships of Mainland China has an upward trend. Although there is a downward trend in the proportion of Taiwan's imports and exports to Mainland China and Hong Kong, it is still very high. From the time series quantitative analysis, it can be seen that after the ADF unit root test, each original variable is a first-order integrated variable I(1). After Johansen's cointegration test, it was found that there is a cointegration relationship between Mainland China's military aircraft and warships, Cross-Strait imports and exports, and the DPP's vote share, that is, there is a long-term stable relationship. That is to say, the Taiwanese people who are more supportive of the DPP are not obviously afraid of the Mainland China's military aircraft and warships approaching Taiwan, and they still view the development of Cross-Strait economy and trade positively. However, there is no cointegration relationship between the Mainland China’s military aircraft and warships, Cross-Strait imports and exports, and the KMT’s vote share. Therefore, the Cross-Strait economy and trade to the KMT’s vote share may not be significant. Moreover, the changes in the Mainland China's military aircraft and warships have no significant long-term stable relationship with the KMT's vote share. The biggest difference between this study and the traditional research is the use of empirical research methods. Moreover, as the frequency and number of Mainland China’s military aircraft and warships approaching Taiwan are increasing, the counter-effect has been proven empirically. These findings are worthy of follow-up research to reflect on the rationale behind them.