疫情期間的不動產政策分析與變遷

An Analysis of Real Estate Policy Changes and Developments During the COVID-19 Pandemic

本研究運用間斷均衡理論（Punctuated Equilibrium Theory）與政策建模一致性指數（PMC）模型，系統分析COVID-19疫情期間中國房地產政策的演變機制與市場響應特徵。研究基於1980-2024年間3,466份房地產政策文本，結合文本挖掘、網絡分析與情感分析等方法，深入探討疫情如何作為外部衝擊打破原有政策均衡並引發政策體系的結構性轉型。
研究發現：（1）疫情期間房地產政策呈現典型的間斷均衡特徵，2020年政策發布量較2019年驟增187.6%，政策密度和強度均達到歷史高峰；（2）政策內容從市場調控向風險防控與民生保障轉變，PMC指數評估顯示45.55%的政策達到優秀級別，但政策質量呈現兩極分化；（3）政策協同機制從中央統一部署向地方因城施策轉變，橫向協同指數提升0.15，縱向協同指數下降0.13；（4）各級城市房價走勢從疫情前的顯著分化轉向趨同下行，一線城市波動係數從1.2降至0.45，呈現「強政策、弱響應」的非線性特徵。
本研究的理論貢獻在於拓展了間斷均衡理論在房地產政策研究中的應用，構建了適用於中國情境的PMC評估體系，為理解重大外部衝擊下的政策演化機制提供了新的分析框架。研究建議：在後疫情時代應構建更具韌性的政策體系，強化政策工具的前瞻性設計，優化多層級協同治理機制，以提升房地產市場調控的精準性和有效性。

This study employs Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET) and Policy Modeling Consistency (PMC) Index to systematically analyze the evolution mechanisms of China's real estate policies and market responses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on 3,466 real estate policy documents spanning from 1980 to 2024, combined with text mining, network analysis, and sentiment analysis methods, this research explores how the pandemic as an external shock disrupted the existing policy equilibrium and triggered structural transformation of the policy system.
The findings reveal that: (1) Real estate policies during the pandemic exhibited typical punctuated equilibrium characteristics, with policy issuance in 2020 surging 187.6% compared to 2019, reaching historical peaks in both density and intensity; (2) Policy content shifted from market regulation to risk prevention and livelihood protection, with PMC index assessment showing 45.55% of policies achieving excellent level, though policy quality showed polarization; (3) Policy coordination mechanisms transformed from centralized deployment to localized city-specific strategies, with horizontal coordination index increasing by 0.15 while vertical coordination index decreasing by 0.13; (4) Housing price trends across city tiers shifted from significant pre-pandemic divergence to convergent decline, with first-tier cities' volatility coefficient dropping from 1.2 to 0.45, exhibiting non-linear characteristics of ''strong policies, weak responses.''
The theoretical contribution of this study lies in extending the application of punctuated equilibrium theory to real estate policy research and constructing a PMC evaluation system applicable to the Chinese context, providing a new analytical framework for understanding policy evolution mechanisms under major external shocks. The study recommends: constructing a more resilient policy system in the post-pandemic era, strengthening forward-looking policy tool design, and optimizing multi-level collaborative governance mechanisms to enhance the precision and effectiveness of real estate market regulation.