「一個中國」的變與常：檢視中國夥伴關係文本的「一中」論述

Changes and Continuity of the“One China:”Examining Beijing’s“One-China”Discourse in its Strategic Partnership Texts

本文從中共國際統一戰線的角度來探討國際社會對「一個中國」論述的變化。儘管中國大陸對外強調「一中原則」為國際社會共識，但是其他國家關於「一個中國」的論述並不一定跟北京的立場一致，會隨著國際局勢變化而有所調整。本文從國際統戰的角度來分析中共如何運用夥伴關係鞏固其「一個中國」的論述。通過對294筆中國戰略夥伴關係聯合聲明進行文字探勘，本研究發現：一、「一中政策」這種用語比中國大陸推行的「一中原則」更為國際社會所接受，但2018年之後「一中原則」的出現頻率開始上升。二、儘管北京的「一中原則」不變之處在於其代表中國的正統性，但近年來其指涉範圍開始擴大至西藏、新疆以及香港問題，不再僅針對兩岸關係與臺灣問題。最後，通過對個別聲明的「一中」論述分析，本文將中共國際統戰的策略區分為「鞏固南方國家」、「分化美國盟友」與「籠絡臺灣前邦交國」。本文的研究貢獻在於從中共國際統戰的策略，闡述中國大陸如何透過戰略夥伴關係將「一中原則」形塑為「國際社會基本共識」，並從國際社會的回應來評估其成效。

This paper examines the evolution of international discourse on the“One China”through the lens of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) international front work strategy. Although China claims that its“One-China Principle”is a“universal consensus in the international society,”other countries’interpretations of the“One China”do not often align with Beijing’s stance and they may shift in response to changes in international politics. This paper analyzes how Beijing consolidates its“One-China”discourse through strategic partnership from the perspective of International United Front Work. Using text mining on 294 bilateral joint statements of China’s strategic partnerships with other countries, this research finds that, first, the term“One-China Policy”is more widely accepted by the international community than Beijing’s self-asserted“One-China Principle,”yet the frequency of“One-China Principle”has increased since 2018. Moreover, while Beijing’s has claimed its“One- China principle”consistently represent the legitimate government of China, in recent years the scope has expanded to issues including Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong, not merely focusing on cross-Strait relations and the Taiwan issue. Finally, through qualitative discourse analysis of statements, this study identifies three types of China’s international united front strategy: consolidating ties with the countries of“Global South,”dividing U.S. allies, and co-opting Taiwan’s former diplomatic allies. This paper contributes to the literature by illustrating how China uses international united front strategy to frame its“One-China Principle”as a“universal consensus”with its strategic partners, and evaluating its effectiveness based on international responses.