2024年總統電視辯論研究：三方關鍵選戰的功能性分析

The 2024 Taiwanese Presidential Debate: Functional Analysis of a Three-Way Race in a Critical Election

由於對地緣政治和經濟的重要影響，臺灣大選吸引國際媒體的高度關注。而三方競選的特點，也使2024年臺灣大選成為對比美國主流競選模式的重要研究個案。儘管大選本身吸引大量報導，有關競選訊息的系統性檢視卻相對稀少。本文應用學界廣泛引用的「政治競選論述功能理論」（Functional Theory of Political Campaign Discourse），檢視2024年臺灣大選電視辯論，並根據內容分析結果提出四項研究發現。首先，本屆大選辯論中攻擊（負面）訊息比例高於以往選舉，顯示候選人更訴求對立的政治立場。其次，辯論中政策論題的運用高於人格論題的比例，這項偏重有別於過去臺灣偏重人格論題的情形，突顯情境因素對辯論策略的可能影響。第三，訊息論題中含有高比例的整體目標與理想願景等子題，揭示政治人物偏好運用模糊性訊息的傾向。最後，攻擊目標的分析呈現了三方選戰中，民調領先者、第二名和第三名候選人所採取的策略與可能限制。

The 2024 Taiwanese election gained significant international attention due to its geopolitical and economic importance. However, thorough analysis of the election messages remains limited. This study utilized the Functional Theory of Political Campaign Discourse to examine the 2024 presidential debate, providing insights across four key aspects. Firstly, candidates in the 2024 election relied heavily on negative messages (attacks), resembling general pattern seen in the 2020 U.S. presidential debates, possibly reflecting voter distrust and polarization concerns in Taiwan. Secondly, there was relative emphasis on policy discussions over character remarks by candidates, deviating from Taiwan’s character-centered culture, indicating situational factors may influence debate dynamics. Thirdly, vague messages, such as general goals and ideals, were prevalent in the debate, mirroring trends observed in U.S. counterparts, suggesting a preference among politicians for vagueness. Lastly, the analysis of the three-way race provided insights into the effectiveness of debate strategies employed by leading, second-place, and third-place candidates, as well as the limitations of strategic voting.