臺灣在非常時期下的糧食安全挑戰與應對策略

Challenges and Response Strategies for Taiwan’s Food Security in Times of Crisis

臺灣目前的糧食安全存量僅能維持約2.8個月，若短（長）期休耕地可有效復耕，糧食自給率可從30.3%提升至39.2%。假設復耕地全種地瓜，所獲總熱量可延長臺灣的糧食安全存量約18.7天。若實施糧食緊急調配措施（如緊急屠宰牲畜和養殖魚），臺灣糧食安全存量可增加約20天。加總起來，以上措施約可增加臺灣的糧食安全存量達1.3個月。若非常時期發生在稻作收穫期，臺灣在面臨糧食危機時能保持5.3個月的糧食安全；否則，最低僅能保持4.1個月的糧食安全。因此，臺灣在非常時期能保持的糧食安全均值是4.7個月。臺灣稻作一年兩期，蕃薯約5至6個月才可以採收。為了避免青黃不接的困境，建議政府鼓勵臺灣每個家庭能儲備約3個用的糧食，因此最高可使臺灣的糧食安全存量達8.3個月。

Taiwan’s current food security stockpile can sustain approximately 2.8 months. If short-term and long-term fallow land is effectively restored, the food self-sufficiency rate could increase from 30.3% to 39.2%. Assuming all restored land is used for sweet potato cultivation, the total caloric yield could extend Taiwan’s food security reserves by approximately 18.7 days. If emergency food allocation measures (e.g., emergency livestock slaughtering and aquaculture harvesting) are implemented, Taiwan’s food security stockpile could increase by an additional 20 days. In total, these measures could extend Taiwan’s food security reserves by approximately 1.3 months. If a crisis occurs during the rice harvest season, Taiwan could maintain 5.3 months of food security. Otherwise, the minimum food security period would be 4.1 months. Thus, on average, Taiwan’s food security stockpile during a crisis would be 4.7 months. Taiwan’s rice production follows a two-season cycle, while sweet potatoes require approximately 5-6 months from planting to harvest. To prevent food shortages, it is recommended that the government encourage every household in Taiwan to stockpile at least 3 months’worth of food supplies. This strategy could increase Taiwan’s maximum food security stockpile to 8.3 months, significantly enhancing national food resilience.