立法委員參選縣市長之政治野心與立法表現：一個機器學習的途徑

The Relationship between Legislators’Political Ambition and Legislative Performances: A Machine Learning Approach

政治人物不管身在立法機關或行政機關，皆會有想要在其政治生涯轉換其職位並更上一層樓的野心。而政治人物的政治野心一直是國會研究關注的議題，國外之研究成果相當豐碩，國內卻少有相關文獻。在臺灣立法委員為了更上一層樓，會選擇參選縣市首長。本文想要探討，這些具有積極參選縣市長野心的立委，是否會在立法行為上有積極表現，也會積極地爭取媒體曝光？
本文以2008年至2020年的自由時報和中國時報為分析文本，並以機器學習的方式來進行文本分類，並輔以羅吉斯迴歸模型對立法委員參選縣市首長的政治野心進行測量，再以學者專家的評估來檢視其效度。
最後，本文嘗試探究政治野心與立法表現之間的關係。研究發現政治野心對立法表現有明顯的負面影響，尤其是在口頭質詢、委員會出席、法案預算審查、院會出席等立法表現。政治野心對於立法委員在第一提案人的立法表現上，則是沒有顯著的影響。

Irrespective of whether they belong to the legislative or the executive branch, politicians are driven to pursue higher political positions. The political ambitions of these politicians have always been a topic of concern in the field of congressional studies. While foreign research has yielded fruitful results, there have been limited studies conducted in Taiwan. In Taiwan, legislators often choose to run for county and city mayors as a means to advance their political careers. This paper aims to investigate whether those legislators who actively seek such mayoral positions exhibit positive performance in legislative behavior and actively seek media exposure.
To accomplish this, the paper analyzes texts from Liberty Times and China Times News spanning from 2008 to 2020, utilizing machine learning to classify the texts. This analysis is supplemented by the Logistic regression model to gauge the political ambitions of legislators running for county and city mayors. The validity of the findings is then cross-referenced with evaluations from scholars and experts.
Lastly, the paper explores the relationship between political ambition and legislative performance. The study reveals that political ambition has a significant negative impact on legislative performance, especially in areas such as oral inquiries, committee attendance, bill budget review, and floor attendance. However, political ambition does not have a significant effect on legislators’legislative performance when acting as the first sponsor.