從「岸田政權」到「石破政權」：「安倍政治」遺產及其消失｜From the“Kishida Regime”to the“Ishiba Regime”: the Legacy of“Abe Politics”and Its Disappearance

「岸田政権」から「石破政権」へ：「安倍政治」の遺産とその消失

日本前首相岸田文雄因為民調支持度長期低迷不振，於2024年8月14日公開宣布不續任自民黨總裁職務，也就是等同於首相辭職下台，承擔政治獻金醜聞案的政治責任。自民黨選舉石破茂擔任新任總裁，日本國會也選舉石破茂擔任首相，石破茂上任後宣布解散眾議院，創下在戰後時期首相上任後於最短時間宣布解散國會重新改選。
然而，第50回眾議院改選的選舉結果，對石破茂與自民黨而言卻是非常不理想，自民黨不僅失去眾議院單獨過半數的席次，即使是自民黨與公明黨的執政同盟也無法延續取得眾議院過半數的政治實力，日本政壇出現相當大的不穩定。儘管石破茂誓言繼續留任以及持續推動政治改革，不過，日本新聞媒體的民調結果卻顯示，石破茂的民意支持度已經大幅下滑，民調對石破茂的不支持率上揚，日本國民普遍的「政治不信」，導致石破茂作為首相的前景相當不穩定。

岸田前首相は世論調査での支持率が長期にわたり低迷していたことをうけ、自民党総裁の職務を任期限りで辞任することを2024年8月14日に表明した。それは首相を辞任するということでもあり、政治献金スキャンダルの責任をとったものであった。自民党総裁選は石破茂が新総裁に選出され、国会も石破を首相に選出したが、石破は就任直後に衆議院を解散し、就任から戦後最短で国会解散・総選挙を行った首相となった。
しかし第50回衆議院選挙の結果は石破と自民党にとって理想とはほど遠く、自民党は衆院過半数を喪失し、連立を組む公明党との議席を合わせても過半数をとることができず、日本の政界は非常に不安定となった。石破は首相にとどまり政治改革を推進し続けると公約したが、メディアの世論調査では石破の支持率がすでに大幅に落ちる一方、不支持率は上昇しており、国民の普遍的な「政治不信」は石破の首相としての先行きを非常に不安定なものとしている。
Former Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida publicly announced on August 14 2024 that he would not renew his term as president of the Liberal Democratic Party due to long-term sluggishness in poll support, which was equivalent to the Prime Minister resigning and assuming political responsibility for the political donation scandal. The Liberal Democratic Party elected Shigeru Ishiba as its new president, and Japan’s National Assembly also elected Shigeru Ishiba as prime minister. After taking office, Ishiba announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives, setting a record for the shortest time for a prime minister to announce the dissolution of Congress and re-election in the post-war era.
However, the results of the 50th House of Representatives re-election were very unsatisfactory for Ishiba Shigeru and the Liberal Democratic Party. The Liberal Democratic Party lost more than half of the seats in the House of Representatives, and the Liberal Democratic Party and the allied Komeito Party were unable to gain more than half of the political strength, resulting in a considerable crisis in Japanese politics of instability. Although Shigeru Ishiba vowed to stay in office and continue to promote political reform, poll results from Japanese news media showed that Shigeru Ishiba’s public support has dropped sharply, and the disapproval rate for Shigeru Ishiba has increased in the polls, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction among the Japanese people. This growing sense of“Political disbelief”has made Ishiba Shigeru’s prospects as prime minister quite unstable.