臺灣紙菸及雪茄進口需求體系之估計

臺灣菸品主要進口品項分別為紙菸及雪茄，此兩種產品的主要進口來源國也不盡相同。本研究使用經濟部國際貿易署1989年至2023年之臺灣月進口資料及應用AIDS模型，估算臺灣從不同進口來源國進口紙菸及雪茄的支出彈性、自身價格彈性及交叉彈性。實證結果得出臺灣紙菸進口的支出彈性可分為兩部分，其中日本、德國之支出彈性大於一，為奢侈品，而英國、美國及韓國的支出彈性介於零至一之間，為正常財。此外，雪茄也有相似的情形，荷蘭之支出彈性達1.50，屬奢侈品，其餘進口國家皆為正常財。另一方面，紙菸和雪茄的不同進口來源國之受補償自我價格彈性均小於一，皆缺乏彈性。再者，由英國與韓國進口之紙菸的交叉彈性小於零為互補關係，其餘進口國家的菸品互為替代品，表示不同進口來源國之間為競爭關係。此外，本研究進一步納入Covid-19作為虛擬變數，發現Covid-19對不同進口國的菸品需求存在顯著且程度不一的影響。具體而言，日本與美國的紙菸進口需求呈現下降趨勢，而德國與韓國的紙菸需求則有所增加。此外，荷蘭的雪茄進口需求減少，而多明尼加的雪茄需求則顯著上升。

The main imports of tobacco products in Taiwan are cigarettes and cigars, respectively. However, their main import source countries are different. The monthly import data of cigarettes and cigars during 1989-2023 from International Trade Administration, Ministry of Economic Affairs and AIDS model are employed to estimate expenditure elasticities, price elasticities, and cross elasticities across various source countries. The estimated results show two strands in expenditure elasticities of imported cigarettes as follows. The expenditure elasticities of Japan and Germany are larger than 1 (i.e., imported cigarettes are luxury goods). On the other hand, the expenditure elasticities of the UK, USA, and Korea are less than 1 (i.e., imported cigarettes are normal goods). Similar patterns are found in cigars. The expenditure elasticity of the Netherlands is 1.5. However, the expenditure elasticities of the other source countries are less than 1. The compensated price elasticities of imported cigarettes and cigars are less than 1. In addition, a complementary relationship between the UK and Korean tobacco importers is observed (The cross elasticity is less than 0). However, the substitutional relationship between tobacco importers is observed, showing the competitive relationship between importer-source countries. Moreover, our findings show that COVID-19 has had varying degrees of significant impact on Taiwan’s tobacco import structure. Specifically, imported demand of cigarettes shows declining trend from Japan and USA and increasing trend from Germany and Korea. Moreover, imported demand of cigars shows declining trend from Netherlands and increasing trend from Dominican.