水稻區域產量分區之研究

水稻收入保險是我國農業保險涵蓋地方最廣的保險，其保費與理賠均以各鄉鎮產量為計算基礎，本文研究目的在於從風險同質性的保險觀點，進行鄉鎮分區的規劃研究，以避免逆選擇，並有利於保險推廣。
依集群分析的實證結果顯示：適當的分區可明顯提高同質性及改善各鄉鎮的離散程度，而且階層式分區更優於地理分區。此外，本文亦針對保單內容進行保費試算與減產的理賠模擬，發現分區保費均較不分區保費為低，低約14%～19%，而在減產程度低於15%時，分區的理賠總金額亦較低，但當減產超過15%以上時，分區的理賠則較多，此結果符合保險「保大不保小損失」的精神，有助於農民在面對發生重大減產時，可獲得較多的理賠金額，達到充分保障收入的目的。

Based on the insurance perspective of risk homogeneity, the purpose of this study is to classify area yield zoning in order to avoid adverse selection and facilitate insurance promotion. Empirical results show that appropriate zoning can significantly increase homogeneity, improving the dispersion of townships, and hierarchical zoning is better than geographical zoning. In addition, this study also conducts premium trial calculations and claims simulations for production reduction. It is found that zoned premiums are lower than non-zoned premiums. When the degree of yield reduction is less than 15%, the total claim settlement amount of the zone is also lower. However, when the yield reduction exceeds 15%, there will be more claims based on zoned. This implication of result is in line with the insurance spirit of“protecting the big but not the small loss”.