美中競合下的南海爭端與區域聲索國的戰略回應

The South China Sea Disputes and Strategic Responses of Regional Claimant States Under U.S.-China Rivalry

南海對於全球經濟具有重要的經濟價值，一方面，南海週邊國家經濟成長迅速，東南亞區域在全球舞台上的重要性提升；另一方面，每年世界貿易出口的半數以上的航運通過這個海域，交通位置險要。近十年，中國因其領導權更迭與國內政治需求，在習近平擔任國家主席以來，力求建設中國成為「海上強國」，同時也在此一海域發展前所未有的「軍事化」（militarization）與主權宣示，造成東南亞區域局勢的緊張。據此，南海週邊的主權聲索國紛紛強化軍備與強化與美國的安全交流。而以美國為首的西方國家也反覆強調確保「航行自由」（freedom of navigation）的重要性，派遣美國軍艦定期巡戈南海海域。全球安全專家指稱南海的爭端可能成為一個區域衝突引爆點（flashpoint），透過南海爭端的政治解析，是維持南海和平的重要基礎。本文擬就中國在南海區域的軍事化作為、美中領導權爭奪與東南亞區域聲索國的戰略的發展來剖析南海爭端的變遷。

The South China Sea is becoming one of the important economic area of the global economy. On the one hand, the economies around the South China Sea are growing rapidly, and the importance of Southeast Asia on the global stage has increased; on the other hand, more than half of the world’s trade exports each year pass through this area. In the past decade, due to changes of CCP leadership and domestic political struggles, since Xi Jinping assumed the presidency, China has strived to build China into a ''maritime power'' and has also launched unprecedented militarization actives and issued sovereignty claims in this sea area. causing tension in the Southeast Asian region. Accordingly, the sovereign claimants surrounding the South China Sea have strengthened their military build-up and strengthened security exchanges with the United States. Western countries, led by the United States, have repeatedly emphasized the importance of ensuring ''freedom of navigation'' and dispatched warships to regularly patrol the South China Sea. Global security experts allege that the disputes in the South China Sea may become a flashpoint for regional conflicts. Political analysis of the disputes in the South China Sea is an important foundation for maintaining peace in the South China Sea. This paper intends to explain the trajectory of South China Sea dispute through the lens of China’s militarization of SCS, U.S.-China rivalry, and strategic development of regional claimant states.