影響南韓民意對美韓聯盟態度因素之研究

Factors Influencing Public Opinion toward the U.S.-ROK Alliance

在南韓民主化後，民意對南韓外交政策產出的重要性進一步提升，使南韓政府在應對與美國的同盟關係時必須要回應民意的訴求。雖然既有的研究嘗試分析影響南韓民眾對美韓聯盟的態度，但是大多數的研究只從單一案例中分析個別因素的影響。因此，為了分析何種因素在影響南韓民眾對美韓聯盟的態度扮演重要的角色，本研究將會採用量化分析方法檢視多個因素對此議題之間的關係與其重要性。從本研究的分析中發現，當民眾認為北韓對南韓國家安全構成威脅，認為美韓雙方的利益一致時，民眾越有可能對維持美韓聯盟持正面的態度。反之，當民眾認為駐韓美應撤出南韓，以及認為中國為南韓的所帶來的利益比美國重要時，民眾對美韓聯盟持正面態度的可能會隨之減少。

Since the liberalization in South Korea, public opinion has played an essential role in influencing Seoul’s foreign policy generation. In this case, it is essential for policymakers to pay attention to public opinion when they interact with the United States, an ally of South Korea. Although the existing research provides factors influencing South Korean public opinion toward the U.S.-ROK alliance, it adopts case studies without empirical support. Hence, this research adopts quantitative research to investigate which factors play a significant role in influencing the South Korean public attitude toward the U.S.-ROK alliance. In this research, I found that when people in South Korea believe North Korea causes a threat to South Korea’s security, and favor the United States increase his/her support for the U.S.-ROK alliance. Otherwise, people believe the United States Forces Korea (USFK) should withdraw from South Korea and expect to ensure a positive interaction with China decrease the likelihood of supporting the U.S.-ROK alliance.