引領大型貨櫃船進港之風險評估──以基隆港為例

Risk Assessment on Piloting Inbound Large Container Ships in Keelung Harbour

本文參考IMO正規安全評估方法，以引領基隆港大型貨櫃船進港為研究案例，了解其風險是否在可接受範圍之內。研究中識別出引領過程可能遭遇之危險，以問卷收集10位執業引水人意見，求得風險矩陣之頻率指數、嚴重性指數以及風險指數，發現風險雖皆在容許範圍內，但仍應盡可能且實際地將風險降低（as low as reasonably practicable, ALARP）至可接受的合理範圍。研究中所識別出的危險及其風險管控措施可供後續研究參考，而以風險排序後，挑選最高的人員落海風險項目為例，建立故障樹分析（fault tree analysis, FTA）情境，計算頂端事件（Top Event）發生機率，由風險管控措施前後之風險機率降幅，比較風險管控措施成本效益高低，研究歷程顯示IMO正規安全評估方法分析引領船舶進港之議題可行，並可供相關單位實施港口風險評估時採用。

The paper refers to IMO Formal Safety Assessment methodology for the risk assessing of piloting a large container vessel entering Keelung Port and figures out whether the risk is within the acceptable level. The study identified the possible hazards that may be encountered in piloting large container ships entering the port, and collected opinions from 10 practicing pilots by the questionnaires survey to obtain the frequency, severity, and risk indices of the piloting operation risk matrix. The result of study revealed that the identified risks are all within ALARP (as low as reasonably practicable) tolerable zone, but risk control measures are still required to reduce the risk further down to an acceptable level. Those identified hazards and risk control measures could be a reference for further study and the highest risk item is selected as an example to establish a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) calculating the occurrence probability of Top Event so as to appreciate the current risk levels of the scenarios. This is followed by the evaluation of risk reductions resulting from the implementation of risk control options and cost-benefit assessment. Finally, the study process shows that the IMO formal safety assessment is feasible to analyze issues of piloting inbound ships and can be used by relevant authorities when implementing risk assessments.