中國發展東南亞關係之霸權企圖：從睦鄰友好到戰略對接

China’s hegemonic attempt in developing relations with Southeast Asia: From“Good-Neighborliness and Friendship”to“Strategic docking”

在COVID-19疫情緩和後，國際已展現發展新趨勢；惟中美貿易戰持續，俄烏戰爭未歇，甚至以哈衝突危機等，更加劇國際層面之紛爭。尤其中國軍力及國力抬升，可能出現區域大國權力轉移之壓力，進而影響國際格局的不穩定發展。為瞭解中國能否有機會逐步成為區域的霸權，本文從中國自改革開放後，對東南亞外交的睦鄰友好政策，迄至目前的「21世紀海上絲綢之路」所形成的戰略對接發展方向，分析中國在東南亞的霸權影響。若中國與東南亞國家進一步提升關係，將凸顯其在區域的影響力與朝霸權國家發展之形勢，或至少可能成為區域海上霸權國家。不過，因美國在東南亞向即擁有傳統利益，故抗衡中國的作為，可從美國的「重返亞洲」戰略稍見端倪，同時東協國家也將被迫在中國與美國之間做選擇。文章藉闡述中國對東南亞國家交往政策的轉變，由早期的睦鄰友好政策，到近期的戰略對接作法，觀察中國與東南亞國家關係發展趨勢。認為東南亞的地理和民族文化特色，使中國提升與東南亞關係更顯複雜，也可能引發東南亞國家及國際上的不同回應。儘管中國曾表明不稱霸，但中國的國際影響力持續上升，尤其在俄烏戰爭與以哈衝突後，隱然已成為重要的權力平衡者；中國的對外政策由保守的「睦鄰友好」轉為積極的「戰略對接」，似具邁向霸權國家之企圖。儘管中國透過「21世紀海上絲綢之路」提供東南亞利多，易獲得大部分東南亞國家之歡迎；但面對美國拉攏東南亞，以及部分東南亞國家原即不甚信任中國的共產黨意識形態，亦使中國霸權面臨相當挑戰。

With the COVID-19 epidemic has eased, the world shows new trends in development.The trade war between China and the United States, the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the other crisis all have intensified international disputes. In particular, China's rising military and national power creates pressure on region, which may affect the unstable development of the world. In order to understand whether China has the opportunity to gradually become a regional hegemon, this article analyzes the strategic alignment and development direction formed by China's good-neighborliness and friendship policy towards Southeast Asia and to the current ''21st Century Maritime Silk Road.'' If China further enhances relations with Southeast Asian countries, it will highlight that influence in the region and developing towards a hegemonic power, at least may become a regional maritime hegemon. Since the United States has traditional interests in Southeast Asia, its efforts to counter China can be seen in ''return to Asia'' strategy. At the same time, ASEAN countries will also be forced to on the American side or China side. This article elaborates on the changes in China's exchange policies with Southeast Asian countries, from the early good-neighborliness and friendship policy to the recent strategic docking practices, observes the development trend of China's relations with Southeast Asian countries. The geographical and cultural characteristics of Southeast Asia make it more complicated for China to upgrade relations with Southeast Asia, and may also trigger different responses from Southeast Asian countries and whole world. Although China has stated“not seek hegemony,”her international influence continues to rise. Especially the happen of Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Kazakhstan conflict, China has become an important balancer of power. China's foreign policy has changed from a conservative ''good-neighborliness and friendship'' to a proactive '' strategic docking.'' It seems to be on the road to becoming a hegemonic country. Although China provides benefits to Southeast Asia through the ''21st Century Maritime Silk Road'' and welcomed by most Southeast Asian countries easily, when facing the United States' power in Southeast Asia and some Southeast Asian countries do not trust the ideology of the Chinese Communist Party, China has developing hegemony will have challenges.