中國也有「印太戰略」嗎？攻勢現實主義的觀點

Is There a China’s“Indo-Pacific Strategy”? An Offensive Realism Perspective

不論從當前的理論或是實務發展來看，中國在2010年以來的對外主要作為均以其一帶一路倡議以及亞洲基礎設施投資銀行作為分析要點，而美國的對應則聚焦在歐巴馬總統開始，並在川普與拜登時期成熟的印太戰略上。學界與政策界對兩國互動的研析，不外乎是基於這樣的戰略架構討論。不過，中國如何在近年發展之中逐漸形成一套在亞洲地區的策略，用以應對美國及其盟友的印太戰略，目前並沒有一套較完整的架構解析。本文認為，雖然在政策偏向、對外原則以及價值觀等面向，中國並沒有採用美國及其盟國所主張的「印太戰略」，但在攻勢現實主義的脈絡之下，中國仍會形成一定程度的對應內容。基於自身所在地，中國就有自己一套的印太戰略，我們並將之稱為「中國式印太戰略」（Indo-Pacific Strategy, Chinese Style）。本文從攻勢現實主義（offensive realism）的角度出發探討中國式印太戰略，並探討其印太戰略對印太地區可能產生的影響。

From either theory or practice, the Belt and Road Initiative （BRI） and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank （AIIB） have been identified as two major foreign behaviors of China. To respond, the United States adopts the Indo- Pacific Strategy which started in the Obama administration and developed in Trump and Biden administrations. Though scholars and policy practitioners apply the aforementioned strategies to analyze US-China relations, the understanding of China’s strategy in Asia is still underdeveloped. This paper argues that while China has not replicated the“Indo-Pacific strategy”promoted by the United States and its allies in terms of its policy direction, international principles, and underlying values, it is nonetheless developing a response within the framework of offensive realism. Given its geographical position, China has crafted its own version of an Indo-Pacific strategy, which we term the“Indo- Pacific Strategy, Chinese Style.”Based upon offensive realism, we attempt to understand the logic of this strategy, and its impact on the Indo-Pacific region.