印尼地方政治與2019年總統大選之實證研究：侍從主義的解釋觀點

An Empirical Analysis of Indonesian Local Politics and the 2019 Presidential Election: A Clientelist Perspective

印尼總統佐科威於2014年首次贏得總統大選後，在2019年再次勝選並連任。有別於既有文獻以社群媒體、認同政治、經濟投票等因素來解釋佐科威於2019年勝選連任的可能原因，本文利用縣市層級的資料，探討侍從主義如何對於佐科威競選連任的選舉表現造成影響。本文主張，在佐科威執政前的恩庇侍從關係，主要強調社區與個別地方政治人物的角色；而在佐科威執政期間，可觀察到政黨在侍從主義網絡的運作發揮更積極主動的角色，在全國大選幫助佐科威獲得更多選票。雖然目前也有文獻從侍從主義的角度解釋佐科威的選舉表現，但這些文獻大多為個別城市或區域之描述性研究，系統性的實證研究尚付之闕如。為了補充此學術空缺，本文利用縣市層次之資料，對於侍從主義所產生的選舉效應進行驗證。本文的實證分析發現，首先，佐科威在其政黨聯盟執政的縣市獲得較多選票；其次，當一個縣市的議會有愈多佐科威政黨聯盟的議員，佐科威在該縣市獲得較多選票；第三，當一個縣市在佐科威第一任期獲得愈多公共預算，佐科威在該縣市獲得較多選票。綜言之，本研究的貢獻在於從侍從主義的角度，對於佐科威2019年的選舉表現提出重要的補充觀點。

After first winning the presidential election in 2014, Indonesian President Joko Widodo （Jokowi） was reelected in 2019. Unlike existing literature that explains Jokowi’s 2019 victory through factors such as social media, identity politics, and economic voting, this article uses city/regency-level data to explore how clientelism impacts Jokowi’s electoral performance. It argues that prior to Jokowi’s administration, patron-client relationships primarily emphasized the roles of community and individual local politicians. During Jokowi’s tenure, however, political parties played a more active role within clientelist networks, helping Jokowi secure more votes in the national election. Although some existing literature also explains Jokowi’s electoral performance from the perspective of clientelism, most of these studies are descriptive and focused on individual cities or regions, lacking systematic empirical research. To fill this academic gap, this article uses city/regency-level data to verify the electoral effects generated by clientelism. The empirical analysis finds that Jokowi receives more votes in the city/regency governed by his party alliance. Additionally, the more members of the Jokowi party alliance a city/regency’s council have, the more votes Jokowi receives in that county. Lastly, the more public budget a city/regency receives during Jokowi’s administration; the more votes Jokowi garners in that city/regency. In summary, the contribution of this study is to provide a significant supplementary perspective on Jokowi’s 2019 electoral performance from the perspective of clientelism.